module Split class Experiment attr_accessor :name attr_writer :algorithm attr_accessor :resettable attr_accessor :goals attr_accessor :alternatives attr_accessor :alternative_probabilities attr_accessor :metadata DEFAULT_OPTIONS = { :resettable => true } def initialize(name, options = {}) options = DEFAULT_OPTIONS.merge(options) @name = name.to_s alternatives = extract_alternatives_from_options(options) if alternatives.empty? && (exp_config = Split.configuration.experiment_for(name)) set_alternatives_and_options( alternatives: load_alternatives_from_configuration, goals: load_goals_from_configuration, metadata: load_metadata_from_configuration, resettable: exp_config[:resettable], algorithm: exp_config[:algorithm] ) else set_alternatives_and_options( alternatives: alternatives, goals: options[:goals], metadata: options[:metadata], resettable: options[:resettable], algorithm: options[:algorithm] ) end end def set_alternatives_and_options(options) self.alternatives = options[:alternatives] self.goals = options[:goals] self.resettable = options[:resettable] self.algorithm = options[:algorithm] self.metadata = options[:metadata] end def extract_alternatives_from_options(options) alts = options[:alternatives] || [] if alts.length == 1 if alts[0].is_a? Hash alts = alts[0].map{|k,v| {k => v} } end end if alts.empty? exp_config = Split.configuration.experiment_for(name) if exp_config alts = load_alternatives_from_configuration options[:goals] = load_goals_from_configuration options[:metadata] = load_metadata_from_configuration options[:resettable] = exp_config[:resettable] options[:algorithm] = exp_config[:algorithm] end end self.alternatives = alts self.goals = options[:goals] self.algorithm = options[:algorithm] self.resettable = options[:resettable] # calculate probability that each alternative is the winner @alternative_probabilities = {} alts end def save validate! if new_record? Split.redis.sadd(:experiments, name) start unless Split.configuration.start_manually @alternatives.reverse.each {|a| Split.redis.lpush(name, a.name)} save_goals save_metadata Split.redis.set(metadata_key, @metadata.to_json) unless @metadata.nil? else existing_alternatives = load_alternatives_from_redis existing_goals = load_goals_from_redis existing_metadata = load_metadata_from_redis unless existing_alternatives == @alternatives.map(&:name) && existing_goals == @goals && existing_metadata == @metadata reset @alternatives.each(&:delete) delete_goals delete_metadata Split.redis.del(@name) @alternatives.reverse.each {|a| Split.redis.lpush(name, a.name)} save_goals save_metadata end end Split.redis.hset(experiment_config_key, :resettable, resettable) Split.redis.hset(experiment_config_key, :algorithm, algorithm.to_s) self end def validate! if @alternatives.empty? && Split.configuration.experiment_for(@name).nil? raise ExperimentNotFound.new("Experiment #{@name} not found") end @alternatives.each {|a| a.validate! } unless @goals.nil? || goals.kind_of?(Array) raise ArgumentError, 'Goals must be an array' end end def new_record? !Split.redis.exists(name) end def ==(obj) self.name == obj.name end def [](name) alternatives.find{|a| a.name == name} end def algorithm @algorithm ||= Split.configuration.algorithm end def algorithm=(algorithm) @algorithm = algorithm.is_a?(String) ? algorithm.constantize : algorithm end def resettable=(resettable) @resettable = resettable.is_a?(String) ? resettable == 'true' : resettable end def alternatives=(alts) @alternatives = alts.map do |alternative| if alternative.kind_of?(Split::Alternative) alternative else Split::Alternative.new(alternative, @name) end end end def winner if w = Split.redis.hget(:experiment_winner, name) Split::Alternative.new(w, name) else nil end end def has_winner? !winner.nil? end def winner=(winner_name) Split.redis.hset(:experiment_winner, name, winner_name.to_s) end def participant_count alternatives.inject(0){|sum,a| sum + a.participant_count} end def control alternatives.first end def reset_winner Split.redis.hdel(:experiment_winner, name) end def start Split.redis.hset(:experiment_start_times, @name, Time.now.to_i) end def start_time t = Split.redis.hget(:experiment_start_times, @name) if t # Check if stored time is an integer if t =~ /^[-+]?[0-9]+$/ t = Time.at(t.to_i) else t = Time.parse(t) end end end def next_alternative winner || random_alternative end def random_alternative if alternatives.length > 1 algorithm.choose_alternative(self) else alternatives.first end end def version @version ||= (Split.redis.get("#{name.to_s}:version").to_i || 0) end def increment_version @version = Split.redis.incr("#{name}:version") end def key if version.to_i > 0 "#{name}:#{version}" else name end end def goals_key "#{name}:goals" end def finished_key "#{key}:finished" end def metadata_key "#{name}:metadata" end def resettable? resettable end def reset alternatives.each(&:reset) reset_winner Split.configuration.on_experiment_reset.call(self) increment_version end def delete alternatives.each(&:delete) reset_winner Split.redis.srem(:experiments, name) Split.redis.del(name) delete_goals delete_metadata Split.configuration.on_experiment_delete.call(self) increment_version end def delete_goals Split.redis.del(goals_key) end def delete_metadata Split.redis.del(metadata_key) end def load_from_redis exp_config = Split.redis.hgetall(experiment_config_key) self.resettable = exp_config['resettable'] self.algorithm = exp_config['algorithm'] self.alternatives = load_alternatives_from_redis self.goals = load_goals_from_redis self.metadata = load_metadata_from_redis end def calc_winning_alternatives # Super simple cache so that we only recalculate winning alternatives once per day days_since_epoch = Time.now.utc.to_i / 86400 if self.calc_time != days_since_epoch if goals.empty? self.estimate_winning_alternative else goals.each do |goal| self.estimate_winning_alternative(goal) end end self.calc_time = days_since_epoch self.save end end def estimate_winning_alternative(goal = nil) # TODO - refactor out functionality to work with and without goals # initialize a hash of beta distributions based on the alternatives' conversion rates beta_params = calc_beta_params(goal) winning_alternatives = [] Split.configuration.beta_probability_simulations.times do # calculate simulated conversion rates from the beta distributions simulated_cr_hash = calc_simulated_conversion_rates(beta_params) winning_alternative = find_simulated_winner(simulated_cr_hash) # push the winning pair to the winning_alternatives array winning_alternatives.push(winning_alternative) end winning_counts = count_simulated_wins(winning_alternatives) @alternative_probabilities = calc_alternative_probabilities(winning_counts, Split.configuration.beta_probability_simulations) write_to_alternatives(goal) self.save end def write_to_alternatives(goal = nil) alternatives.each do |alternative| alternative.set_p_winner(@alternative_probabilities[alternative], goal) end end def calc_alternative_probabilities(winning_counts, number_of_simulations) alternative_probabilities = {} winning_counts.each do |alternative, wins| alternative_probabilities[alternative] = wins / number_of_simulations.to_f end return alternative_probabilities end def count_simulated_wins(winning_alternatives) # initialize a hash to keep track of winning alternative in simulations winning_counts = {} alternatives.each do |alternative| winning_counts[alternative] = 0 end # count number of times each alternative won, calculate probabilities, place in hash winning_alternatives.each do |alternative| winning_counts[alternative] += 1 end return winning_counts end def find_simulated_winner(simulated_cr_hash) # figure out which alternative had the highest simulated conversion rate winning_pair = ["",0.0] simulated_cr_hash.each do |alternative, rate| if rate > winning_pair[1] winning_pair = [alternative, rate] end end winner = winning_pair[0] return winner end def calc_simulated_conversion_rates(beta_params) # initialize a random variable (from which to simulate conversion rates ~beta-distributed) rand = SimpleRandom.new rand.set_seed simulated_cr_hash = {} # create a hash which has the conversion rate pulled from each alternative's beta distribution beta_params.each do |alternative, params| alpha = params[0] beta = params[1] simulated_conversion_rate = rand.beta(alpha, beta) simulated_cr_hash[alternative] = simulated_conversion_rate end return simulated_cr_hash end def calc_beta_params(goal = nil) beta_params = {} alternatives.each do |alternative| conversions = goal.nil? ? alternative.completed_count : alternative.completed_count(goal) alpha = 1 + conversions beta = 1 + alternative.participant_count - conversions params = [alpha, beta] beta_params[alternative] = params end return beta_params end def calc_time=(time) Split.redis.hset(experiment_config_key, :calc_time, time) end def calc_time Split.redis.hget(experiment_config_key, :calc_time).to_i end def jstring(goal = nil) unless goal.nil? jstring = name + "-" + goal else jstring = name end end protected def experiment_config_key "experiment_configurations/#{@name}" end def load_metadata_from_configuration metadata = Split.configuration.experiment_for(@name)[:metadata] end def load_goals_from_configuration goals = Split.configuration.experiment_for(@name)[:goals] if goals.nil? goals = [] else goals.flatten end end def load_goals_from_redis Split.redis.lrange(goals_key, 0, -1) end def load_metadata_from_redis meta = Split.redis.get(metadata_key) JSON.parse(meta) unless meta.nil? end def load_alternatives_from_configuration alts = Split.configuration.experiment_for(@name)[:alternatives] raise ArgumentError, "Experiment configuration is missing :alternatives array" unless alts if alts.is_a?(Hash) alts.keys else alts.flatten end end def load_alternatives_from_redis case Split.redis.type(@name) when 'set' # convert legacy sets to lists alts = Split.redis.smembers(@name) Split.redis.del(@name) alts.reverse.each {|a| Split.redis.lpush(@name, a) } Split.redis.lrange(@name, 0, -1) else Split.redis.lrange(@name, 0, -1) end end def save_goals @goals.reverse.each {|a| Split.redis.lpush(goals_key, a)} unless @goals.nil? end def save_metadata Split.redis.set(metadata_key, @metadata.to_json) unless @metadata.nil? end end end