# This class models probability distributions for dice systems. # # An object of this class represents a single distribution, which might be the result of a complex # combination of dice. # # @example Distribution for a six-sided die # probs = GamesDice::Probabilities.for_fair_die( 6 ) # probs.min # => 1 # probs.max # => 6 # probs.expected # => 3.5 # probs.p_ge( 4 ) # => 0.5 # # @example Adding two distributions # pd6 = GamesDice::Probabilities.for_fair_die( 6 ) # probs = GamesDice::Probabilities.add_distributions( pd6, pd6 ) # probs.min # => 2 # probs.max # => 12 # probs.expected # => 7.0 # probs.p_ge( 10 ) # => 0.16666666666666669 # class GamesDice::Probabilities # Creates new instance of GamesDice::Probabilities. # @param [Array] probs Each entry in the array is the probability of getting a result # @param [Integer] offset The result associated with index of 0 in the array # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] def initialize( probs = [1.0], offset = 0 ) # This should *probably* be validated in future, but that would impact performance @probs = probs @offset = offset end # @!visibility private # the Array, Offset representation of probabilities. def to_ao [ @probs, @offset ] end # Iterates through value, probability pairs # @yieldparam [Integer] result A result that may be possible in the dice scheme # @yieldparam [Float] probability Probability of result, in range 0.0..1.0 # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] this object def each @probs.each_with_index { |p,i| yield( i+@offset, p ) } return self end # A hash representation of the distribution. Each key is an integer result, # and the matching value is probability of getting that result. A new hash is generated on each # call to this method. # @return [Hash] def to_h GamesDice::Probabilities.prob_ao_to_h( @probs, @offset ) end # @!attribute [r] min # Minimum result in the distribution # @return [Integer] def min @offset end # @!attribute [r] max # Maximum result in the distribution # @return [Integer] def max @offset + @probs.count() - 1 end # @!attribute [r] expected # Expected value of distribution. # @return [Float] def expected @expected ||= calc_expected end # Probability of result equalling specific target # @param [Integer] target # @return [Float] in range (0.0..1.0) def p_eql target i = Integer(target) - @offset return 0.0 if i < 0 || i >= @probs.count @probs[ i ] end # Probability of result being greater than specific target # @param [Integer] target # @return [Float] in range (0.0..1.0) def p_gt target p_ge( Integer(target) + 1 ) end # Probability of result being equal to or greater than specific target # @param [Integer] target # @return [Float] in range (0.0..1.0) def p_ge target target = Integer(target) return @prob_ge[target] if @prob_ge && @prob_ge[target] @prob_ge = {} unless @prob_ge return 1.0 if target <= min return 0.0 if target > max @prob_ge[target] = @probs[target-@offset,@probs.count-1].inject(0.0) {|so_far,p| so_far + p } end # Probability of result being equal to or less than specific target # @param [Integer] target # @return [Float] in range (0.0..1.0) def p_le target target = Integer(target) return @prob_le[target] if @prob_le && @prob_le[target] @prob_le = {} unless @prob_le return 1.0 if target >= max return 0.0 if target < min @prob_le[target] = @probs[0,1+target-@offset].inject(0.0) {|so_far,p| so_far + p } end # Probability of result being less than specific target # @param [Integer] target # @return [Float] in range (0.0..1.0) def p_lt target p_le( Integer(target) - 1 ) end # Probability distribution derived from this one, where we know (or are only interested in # situations where) the result is greater than or equal to target. # @param [Integer] target # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] new distribution. def given_ge target target = Integer(target) target = min if min > target p = p_ge(target) raise "There is no valid distribution given a result >= #{target}" unless p > 0.0 mult = 1.0/p new_probs = @probs[target-@offset,@probs.count-1].map { |x| x * mult } GamesDice::Probabilities.new( new_probs, target ) end # Probability distribution derived from this one, where we know (or are only interested in # situations where) the result is less than or equal to target. # @param [Integer] target # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] new distribution. def given_le target target = Integer(target) target = max if max < target p = p_le(target) raise "There is no valid distribution given a result <= #{target}" unless p > 0.0 mult = 1.0/p new_probs = @probs[0..target-@offset].map { |x| x * mult } GamesDice::Probabilities.new( new_probs, @offset ) end # Creates new instance of GamesDice::Probabilities. # @param [Hash] prob_hash A hash representation of the distribution, each key is an integer result, # and the matching value is probability of getting that result # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] def self.from_h prob_hash probs, offset = prob_h_to_ao( prob_hash ) GamesDice::Probabilities.new( probs, offset ) end # Distribution for a die with equal chance of rolling 1..N # @param [Integer] sides Number of sides on die # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] def self.for_fair_die sides sides = Integer(sides) raise ArgumentError, "sides must be at least 1" unless sides > 0 GamesDice::Probabilities.new( Array.new( sides, 1.0/sides ), 1 ) end # Combines two distributions to create a third, that represents the distribution created when adding # results together. # @param [GamesDice::Probabilities] pd_a First distribution # @param [GamesDice::Probabilities] pd_b Second distribution # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] def self.add_distributions pd_a, pd_b combined_min = pd_a.min + pd_b.min combined_max = pd_a.max + pd_b.max new_probs = Array.new( 1 + combined_max - combined_min, 0.0 ) probs_a, offset_a = pd_a.to_ao probs_b, offset_b = pd_b.to_ao probs_a.each_with_index do |pa,i| probs_b.each_with_index do |pb,j| k = i + j pc = pa * pb new_probs[ k ] += pc end end GamesDice::Probabilities.new( new_probs, combined_min ) end # Combines two distributions with multipliers to create a third, that represents the distribution # created when adding weighted results together. # @param [Integer] m_a Weighting for first distribution # @param [GamesDice::Probabilities] pd_a First distribution # @param [Integer] m_b Weighting for second distribution # @param [GamesDice::Probabilities] pd_b Second distribution # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] def self.add_distributions_mult m_a, pd_a, m_b, pd_b combined_min, combined_max = [ m_a * pd_a.min + m_b * pd_b.min, m_a * pd_a.max + m_b * pd_b.min, m_a * pd_a.min + m_b * pd_b.max, m_a * pd_a.max + m_b * pd_b.max, ].minmax new_probs = Array.new( 1 + combined_max - combined_min, 0.0 ) probs_a, offset_a = pd_a.to_ao probs_b, offset_b = pd_b.to_ao probs_a.each_with_index do |pa,i| probs_b.each_with_index do |pb,j| k = m_a * (i + offset_a) + m_b * (j + offset_b) - combined_min pc = pa * pb new_probs[ k ] += pc end end GamesDice::Probabilities.new( new_probs, combined_min ) end # Adds a distribution to itself repeatedly, to simulate a number of dice # results being summed. # @param [Integer] n Number of repetitions, must be at least 1 # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] new distribution def repeat_sum n n = Integer( n ) raise "Cannot combine probabilities less than once" if n < 1 revbin = n.to_s(2).reverse.each_char.to_a.map { |c| c == '1' } pd_power = self pd_result = nil max_power = revbin.count - 1 revbin.each_with_index do |use_power, i| if use_power if pd_result pd_result = GamesDice::Probabilities.add_distributions( pd_result, pd_power ) else pd_result = pd_power end end pd_power = GamesDice::Probabilities.add_distributions( pd_power, pd_power ) unless i == max_power end pd_result end # Calculates distribution generated by summing best k results of n iterations # of the distribution. # @param [Integer] n Number of repetitions, must be at least 1 # @param [Integer] k Number of best results to keep and sum # @return [GamesDice::Probabilities] new distribution def repeat_n_sum_k n, k, kmode = :keep_best n = Integer( n ) k = Integer( k ) raise "Cannot combine probabilities less than once" if n < 1 if k >= n return repeat_sum( n ) end new_probs = Array.new( @probs.count * k, 0.0 ) new_offset = @offset * k d = n - k each do | q, p_maybe | next unless p_maybe > 0.0 # keep_distributions is array of Probabilities, indexed by number of keepers > q, which is in 0...k keep_distributions = calc_keep_distributions( k, q, kmode ) p_table = calc_p_table( q, p_maybe, kmode ) (0...k).each do |n| keepers = [2] * n + [1] * (k-n) p_so_far = keepers.inject(1.0) { |p,idx| p * p_table[idx] } next unless p_so_far > 0.0 (0..d).each do |dn| discards = [1] * (d-dn) + [0] * dn sequence = keepers + discards p_sequence = discards.inject( p_so_far ) { |p,idx| p * p_table[idx] } next unless p_sequence > 0.0 p_sequence *= GamesDice::Combinations.count_variations( sequence ) kd = keep_distributions[n] kd.each { |r,p_r| new_probs[r-new_offset] += p_r * p_sequence } end end end GamesDice::Probabilities.new( new_probs, new_offset ) end private def calc_keep_distributions k, q, kmode if kmode == :keep_best keep_distributions = [ GamesDice::Probabilities.new( [1.0], q * k ) ] if p_gt(q) > 0.0 && k > 1 kd_probabilities = given_ge( q + 1 ) (1...k).each do |n| extra_o = GamesDice::Probabilities.new( [1.0], q * ( k - n ) ) n_probs = kd_probabilities.repeat_sum( n ) keep_distributions[n] = GamesDice::Probabilities.add_distributions( extra_o, n_probs ) end end elsif kmode == :keep_worst keep_distributions = [ GamesDice::Probabilities.new( [1.0], q * k ) ] if p_lt(q) > 0.0 && k > 1 kd_probabilities = given_le( q - 1 ) (1...k).each do |n| extra_o = GamesDice::Probabilities.new( [1.0], q * ( k - n ) ) n_probs = kd_probabilities.repeat_sum( n ) keep_distributions[n] = GamesDice::Probabilities.add_distributions( extra_o, n_probs ) end end else raise "Keep mode #{kmode.inspect} not recognised" end keep_distributions end def calc_p_table q, p_maybe, kmode if kmode == :keep_best p_kept = p_gt(q) p_rejected = p_lt(q) elsif kmode == :keep_worst p_kept = p_lt(q) p_rejected = p_gt(q) else raise "Keep mode #{kmode.inspect} not recognised" end [ p_rejected, p_maybe, p_kept ] end # Convert hash to array,offset notation def self.prob_h_to_ao h rmin,rmax = h.keys.minmax o = rmin a = Array.new( 1 + rmax - rmin, 0.0 ) h.each { |k,v| a[k-rmin] = v } [a,o] end # Convert array,offset notation to hash def self.prob_ao_to_h a, o h = Hash.new a.each_with_index { |v,i| h[i+o] = v if v > 0.0 } h end def calc_expected total = 0.0 @probs.each_with_index { |v,i| total += (i+@offset)*v } total end end # class GamesDice::Probabilities # Helper module with optimised Ruby for counting variations of arrays, such as those returned by # Array#repeated_combination # # @example How many ways can [3,3,6] be arranged? # GamesDice::Combinations.count_variations( [3,3,6] ) # => 3 # # @example When prob( a ) and result( a ) are same for any arrangement of Array a # items = [1,2,3,4,5,6] # items.repeated_combination(5).each do |a| # this_result = result( a ) # this_prob = prob( a ) * GamesDice::Combinations.count_variations( a ) # # Do something useful with this knowledge! E.g. save it to probability array. # end # module GamesDice::Combinations @@variations_cache = {} @@factorial_cache = [1, 1, 2, 6, 24, 120, 720, 5040, 40320, 362880, 3628800] # Counts variations of an array. A unique variation is an arrangement of the array elements which # is detectably different (using ==) from any other. So [1,1,1] has only 1 unique arrangement, # but [1,2,3] has 6 possibilities. # @param [Array] array List of things that can be arranged # @return [Integer] Number of unique arrangements def self.count_variations array all_count = array.count group_sizes = group_counts( array ) cache_key = all_count.to_s + ":" + group_sizes.join(',') @@variations_cache[cache_key] ||= variations_of( all_count, group_sizes ) end private def self.variations_of all_count, groups all_arrangements = factorial( all_count ) # The reject is an optimisation to avoid calculating and multplying by factorial(1) (==1) identical_arrangements = groups.reject {|x| x==1 }.inject(1) { |prod,g| prod * factorial(g) } all_arrangements/identical_arrangements end # Returns counts of unique items in array e.g. [8,8,8,7,6,6] returns [1,2,3] # Sort is for caching def self.group_counts array array.group_by {|x| x}.values.map {|v| v.count}.sort end def self.factorial n # Can start range from 2 because we have pre-cached the result for n=1 @@factorial_cache[n] ||= (2..n).inject(:*) end end