NuclearWindWaveGeothermalImportsH.01N.01R.02R.03R.04R.05R.06I.01GasSolarHydroHeatingLighting & appliancesR.01X.01X.02T.01T.02T.03T.04F.01DomesticIndustryV.01V.02V.03V.04V.05W.01Electricity importsL.01LossesY.01Y.02Z.01Solid hydrocarbonsLiquid hydrocarbonsC.01C.02C.03Solar PVTidalLighting and appliancesSupplyDemandIIIIIIIVJoulesTWhR.07V.06CoalTotalPrimary demandTransfersNational navigationAgricultureSectorOilLiquidProductionTransportNatural gasGeosequestrationIndustrial processesHydrocarbon fuel power generationNuclear power generationNational renewable power generationNuclear power stationsGaseous hydrocarbonsVVIVIIVIIIXIVIXXXIXIIXIIIH2 Production20072010Energy is measured in:Power is measured in:WattsGWFuel20152020202520302035204020452050Equivalent toI.aV.07V.08V.09II.aVII.aVII.cY.03III.bIII.cIII.dIII.eHouseholdsIX.a%District heatingI.bOnshore windOffshore windTotal generationXI.aEmissionsXII.aXII.bXII.cVI.aH2V.10IX.cX.aX.bDomestic lighting, appliances, and cookingCommercial lighting, appliances, and cateringInternational aviationDomestic aviationXII.eXIV.aV.aAgriculture and wasteVI.bT.05T.06International shippingXVFossil fuel productionXV.aIV.aVIII.aElectricity distribution, storage, and balancingXV.bIndigenous fossil-fuel productionY.04Y.05Y.06Q.01Q.02Q.03Coal reservesOil reservesXVIRoad transportRail transportTotal UseTotal Primary SupplyConversion losses, distribution, and own useSupply net of lossesGas reservesSupply, Demand, and Unaccounted supplyA.01Agriculture, waste, and biomatter importsNet balance (should be zero!)IPCC SectorFuel CombustionX1X21B1AMt CO2eX3Dummy for charting usesDummy for charting supplySupply / demand not accounted forTotal unnaccounted supply / demandTotal electricity gridElectricity GenerationDomestic space heating and hot waterCommercial heating and coolingIV.bV.11XVIIXVII.aTrajectory selectionDomestic passenger transportDomestic freightInternational bunkers (CO2 only)Excluding international bunkersOil and petroleum productsBCDSolidSourcePrimary supply, format for web-based interfaceV.12Kyoto agreed sectorsActuals, GHG Inv.IV.cDistributed renewable power generationHeating and coolingNon-thermal renewable generationTarget, for chartEnergy source / use chartsUseElectricity grid (net of distribution losses)V.bBioenergy importsTargetsBase year (1990)(20% of base)(66% of base)% of 2007Actuals, as % of 2007, modelled2050 target2020 target 2020 targetModelled emissionsEmissions as % of base year, adjusted so that 2007 matches actuals% of actualAdjustment factor:2007 Actuals, GHG Inv.III.a.1III.a.2Demand (for charting)Dummy for chartingV.13Primary electricity, solar, marine, and net importsConsumption of solid hydrocarbonsConsumption of liquid hydrocarbonsBioenergy contextual dataUsed in transportUsed in CCS power plantsSupplied from liquid biofuelsSupplied from solid bioenergyUsed in industrySource / UseEnergy supply and demandDummy, for chartCarbon captureBioenergy creditConsumption of gaseous hydrocarbonsUsed in commercial heatingUsed in domestic heatingModelled emissions, net of capture, by sector (Mt CO2e)km^2Square metresArea is measured in:Marine algaeVI.cUsed in heatingUsed in refineriesSupplied from biogasIn the event of a 5 day peak in heating and drop in windUsed in unabated power plants% of base yrDemonstration plants only; no roll-out of CCSNo development of macro-algae cultivationThe dominant non-electric heating fuel is coal (biomass if available)The dominant non-electric heat source is heat from power stationsSpace heating demand increases by 50%, hot water demand by 60%, cooling demand by 250%Space heating demand increases by 30%, hot water demand by 50%, cooling demand by 60%100% electricEnergy demand for lights & appliances increases by 33%. Energy for cooking is stable60% electricity and 40% gas (no change from 2007)Carbon dioxide sequestration rate of 1 million tonnes per annum by 2050Unabated thermal generationBioenergyAgriculture and land useImported energyExample pathwaysNo new nuclear power installed; estimated closure of final plant in 2035No deployment of geothermal electricity generationNo significant solar PV capacity is installedQuantity of waste increases by 30%; almost 10-fold reduction in quantity to landfillNo electricity imports, other than for balancingToday’s 3.5 GW storage & 4 GW interconnection with Europe for balancing4 GW storage & 10 GW interconnection with Europe for balancing7 GW storage with 2 more pumped storage, 15 GW interconnection & some demand shifting20 GW storage with large lagoons, 30 GW interconnection & substantial demand shiftingAverage room temperature increases to 20°C (a 2.5°C increase on 2007)Average room temperature increases to 18°C (a 0.5°C increase on 2007)Average room temperature decreases to 17°C (a 0.5°C decrease on 2007)The dominant non-electric heat source is gas (biogas if available)The dominant non-electric heat source is coal (biomass if available)The dominant non-electric heat source is waste heat from power stationsSpace heating demand stable, hot water demand increases by 25%, cooling demand stableSpace heating demand drops by 25%, hot water demand by 10%, cooling demand by 60%The proportion of non-domestic heat supplied using electricity is 0-10%, as todayThe proportion of non-domestic heat supplied using electricity is 20%The proportion of non-domestic heat supplied using electricity is 30-60%The proportion of non-domestic heat supplied using electricity is 80-100%A mixture of gas/biogas, coal/biomass, and heat from power stationsEnergy demand for domestic lights and appliances increases by 20% (relative to 2007)Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances is stableEnergy demand for domestic lights and appliances decreases by 40%Energy demand for lights & appliances decreases by 5%; decreases by 20% for cookingEnergy demand for lights & appliances decreases by 30%; decreases by 25% for cookingRoad haulage makes up 73% of distance, using conventional engines. Rail all dieselSame as level 2No geosequestrationEnergy demand for lights & appliances increases by 15%; decreases by 5% for cooking2007 (Consistent)NB: Emissions (in blue) are modelled from energy consumption and may not agree preciselyconstant factor so that 2007 modelled emissions match 2007 actual emissions.NB: Modelled emissions adjusted to match 2007 actuals. See note below emission table.with 2007 actuals. However, % of base year figures (in black) have been adjusted by aFood consumption [UNUSED]Some shift from road to rail and water, and more efficient engines1 (or A)2 (or B)3 (or C)~240 TWh/yr from 25-40 CCS power stations; comparable to current gas & coal generation~340 TWh/yr from 35-60 CCS power stations; comparable to total current demand~8,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~50 TWh/yr. ~13,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~80 TWh/yr~10,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~180 TWh/yr~17,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~310 TWh/yrSupply of electricity is maintained at current levels of 5 TWh/yrSupply grows slowly, reaching 7 TWh/yr by 2050Supply grows more quickly, reaching 8 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustainedSupply of geothermal electricity grows slowly to 7 TWh/yr in 2035 and is sustainedSupply grows quickly reaching 21 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustained4m2 of photovoltaic panels per person in 2050, supplying ~60 TWh/yr of electricity 5.4m2 of photovoltaic panels per person in 2050, supplying ~80 TWh/yrAs today, a negligible proportion of buildings have solar thermal in 2050~30% of suitable buildings get ~30% of their hot water from solar thermalAll suitable buildings get ~30% of their hot water from solar thermalAs today, no discernable supply of electricity from micro-wind turbinesSupply increases to 1.3 TWh/yr by 2020 and is sustainedInstalled in all ~450,000 suitable domestic properties; supplies 3.5 TWh/year from 2020Overall quantity of waste grows by 60%; quantity of waste to landfill remains the same30 TWh/yr of electricity imported from Southern Europe70 TWh/yr imported from UK 10% share of international desert solar project The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 0-10%, as todayGreater modal shift to rail and water; more efficient HGVs; more efficient logisticsCarbon dioxide sequestration rate of ~30 million tonnes per annum by 2050Carbon dioxide sequestration rate of ~110 million tonnes per annum by 2050III.c.WaveIII.c.TidalStreamIII.c.TidalRangeCarbon Capture Storage (CCS)Bioenergy SupplyBalancing & StorageUsed in IndustryUsed in unabated power generationUsed in CCS power generationOversupply and Imports needed4 (or D)~510 TWh/yr from 50-90 CCS power stations; build rate of gas plants in the 1990s9.5m2 of photovoltaic panels per person – all suitable roof and facade space used140 TWh/yr imported from UK 20% share of international desert solar project~20,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~130 TWh/yrSupply grows rapidly reaching 35 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustainedSupply grows rapidly reaching 13 TWh/yr by 2035 and is sustainedInstalled in all suitable domestic and non-domestic sties; 8.9 TWh/year from 2020Biomass mainly converted to biogas fuelBiomass converted to a mixture of solid, liquid and gas biofuelsBiomass mainly converted to solid biofuelBiomass mainly converted to liquid biofuelLivestock numbers decrease by 10%Livestock numbers decrease by 20%Livestock numbers increase by 10%Road modal share falls to half; greater hybridisation. Rail freight is all electric Average room temperature decreases to 16°C (a 1.5°C decrease on 2007)A mixture of gas/biogas; coal/biomass; and heat from power stationsAll suitable buildings get ~60% of their hot water from solar thermalEnergy demand for domestic lights and appliances decreases by 60%Biomass power stationsGeothermal electricityVolume of waste and recyclingDomestic transport behaviourAverage temperature of homesHome insulationHome heating electrificationHome heating that isn't electricSolar panels for hot waterSolar panels for electricityElectrification of home cookingCommercial demand for heating and coolingCommercial heating electrificationCommercial heating that isn't electricElectrification of commercial cookingStorage, demand shifting & interconnectionTidal StreamTidal RangeElectricity, format for web-based interfaceCoal importsOil importsNgasGas importsUK land based bioenergyBio-conversionAgricultural 'waste'Other wasteBiomass importsElectricity gridSolar ThermalThermal generationH2 conversionOver generation / exportsHeating and cooling - homesHeating and cooling - commercialLighting & appliances - homesLighting & appliances - commercialPumped heatBiofuel importsCHPThis is the data used for the sankey diagram in the web tool% reduction 1990-2050% imported~1,400 turbines in 2025, reducing to zero as decommissioned sites are not replanted~40,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~430 TWh/yrOnly plants built and under construction (0.6GW)8GW power stations by 2050 delivering 62TWh/yr12GW power stations by 2050 delivering 100TWh/yrOver 20GW installed capacity by 2050 delivering 180TWh/yr~4,400 turbines in 2025, reducing to zero as decommissioned sites are not replantedEnergy crops and food production similar to today5% of land used for energy crops10% of land used for energy cropsLivestock numbers same as todayQuantity of waste stable; 'zero' landfill, most waste recycledArea same as half of natural reserve used, delivering ~4 TWh/yrArea same as all of natural reserve used, delivering ~9 TWh/yrImported biofuel declines from ~ 4 TWh/yr currently to zeroIn 2050, individuals travel 9% further than today. No noticeable modal shift.In 2050, individuals travel the same distance as today. Signficant shift to public transport.Annual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 0.8%. CCC “likely” scenarioAnnual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 1%. CCC “optimistic” scenarioAnnual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 1.5%. CCC “speculative” scenarioOver 7m homes insulated, average thermal leakiness falls by 25%Over 8m homes insulated, average thermal leakiness falls by 33%Over 18m homes insulated, average thermal leakiness falls by 42%Over 24m homes insulated, average thermal leakiness decreases by 50% UK industry output more than doubles by 2050UK industry grows in line with current trendsUK industry output falls 30-40% by 2050No electrification of processes, little improvement in energy intensitySome processes electrified; moderate improvements in process emissions and energy demandHigh electrification; CCS captures 48% of emissions; process emissions reducedFromToBoxInOutDeltaProblemEmissions by sectorShare of Biogas to total gaseous hydrocarbon consumptionShare of Bioliquids to total liquid hydrocarbon consumptionShare of solid biomass to total solid hydrocarbon consumptionElectricity Generation EmissionsPower GenerationCCS in PowerBioenergy in Gas PowerBioenergy in Solid BM PowerBioenergy in Solid HC CCS PowerBioenergy in Gas CCS PowerTotal Emissions from PowerUK BioenergyImported BioenergyUK TransportInternational TransportResidential HeatingResidential Lighting & AppliancesBusinessCommercial HeatingCommercial Lighting & AppliancesUK Electricity GenerationImported ElectricityElectricity Balancing & OtherEnergy Security Contextual DataSame as BSame as 3Same as CArea same as four times natural reserve used, delivering ~46 TWh/yrTrajectory Descriptions (slightly longer for story tab)No new nuclear power installed. Final nuclear power stattion estimated to close in 2035~13 3GW nuclear power stations delivering ~280 TWh/yr~30 3GW nuclear power stations delivering ~630 TWh/yr~50 3GW nuclear power stations delivering ~1030 TWh/yrCCS demonstration plants only~240 TWh/yr from 25-40 CCS power stations - comparable to current gas & coal generation~340 TWh/yr from 35-60 CCS power stations - comparable to total current demand~510 TWh/yr from 50-90 CCS power stations - this requires a similar build rate to that of gas plants in the 1990sAfter demonstration plants, all CCS electricity is from solid fuel (coal or biomass)After demonstration plants, two thirds of CCS electricity is from solid fuel (coal or biomass), one third from gas (natural gas or biogas)After demonstration plants, one third of CCS electricity is from solid fuel (coal or biomass), two thirds from gas (natural gas or biogas)After demonstration plants, all CCS electricity is from gas (natural gas or biogas)~17,000 offshore wind turbines in 2050, delivering ~310 TWh/yr~10,000 offshore wind turbines in 2050, delivering ~180 TWh/yr~1,400 offshore wind turbines in 2025, reducing to zero as decommissioned sites are not replanted~40,000 offshore wind turbines in 2050, delivering ~430 TWh/yr~4,400 onshore wind turbines in 2025, reducing to zero as decommissioned sites are not replanted~8,000 onshore wind turbines in 2050, delivering ~50 TWh/yr. ~13,000 onshore wind turbines in 2050, delivering ~80 TWh/yr~20,000 onshore wind turbines in 2050, delivering ~130 TWh/yrOnly existing biomass plants and those already under construction (0.6GW)8GW of biomass power stations by 2050 delivering 62TWh/yr12GW of biomass power stations by 2050 delivering 100TWh/yrOver 20GW of biomass power stations by 2050 delivering 180TWh/yrSupply of geothermal electricity grows quickly reaching 21 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustainedSupply of geothermal electricity grows rapidly reaching 35 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustainedSupply of hydroelectricity is maintained at current levels of 5 TWh/yrSupply of hydroelectricity grows slowly, reaching 7 TWh/yr by 2050Supply of hydroelectricity grows more quickly, reaching 8 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustainedSupply of hydroelectricity grows rapidly reaching 13 TWh/yr by 2035 and is sustainedSupply of electricity from micro wind turbines increases to 1.3 TWh/yr by 2020 and is sustainedMicro wind turbines installed in all suitable domestic and non-domestic sties, supplying 8.9 TWh/year from 2020Micro wind turbines installed in all ~450,000 suitable domestic properties, supplying 3.5 TWh/year from 202070 TWh/yr of electricity imported from a 10% share of an internationally coordinated desert solar project 140 TWh/yr of electricity imported from a 20% share of an internationally coordinated desert solar project5% of UK land used for energy crops10% of UK land used for energy cropsMacro algae covering the same area as half of natural reserve used, delivering ~4 TWh/yrMacro algae covering the same area as all of natural reserve used, delivering ~9 TWh/yrMacro algae covering the same area as four times natural reserve used, delivering ~46 TWh/yrAnnual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 0.8%, similar to the Climate Change Committee's “likely” scenarioAnnual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 1%, similar to the Climate Change Committee's “optimistic” scenarioAnnual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 1.5%, similar to the Climate Change Committee's “speculative” scenarioNo electrification of industrial processes and little improvement in industrial energy intensitySome industrial processes electrified and moderate improvements in process emissions and energy demandMany industrial processes electrified, CCS captures 48% of emissions and substantial improvements in process emissions and energy demandCommercial space heating demand increases by 50%, hot water demand by 60%, cooling demand by 250%Commercial space heating demand increases by 30%, hot water demand by 50%, cooling demand by 60%Commercial space heating demand stable, hot water demand increases by 25%, cooling demand stableCommercial space heating demand drops by 25%, hot water demand by 10%, cooling demand by 60%Energy demand for commercial lights & appliances increases by 33%. Energy for cooking is stableEnergy demand for commercial lights & appliances increases by 15%; decreases by 5% for cookingEnergy demand for commercial lights & appliances decreases by 5%; decreases by 20% for cookingEnergy demand for commercial lights & appliances decreases by 30%; decreases by 25% for cookingEnergy used for domestic cooking remains at 63% electricity and 37% gasEnergy used for domestic cooking is entirely electricEnergy used for commercial cooking is 60% electricity and 40% gas (no change from 2007)Energy used for commercial cooking is 100% electricCarbon dioxide sequestred at a rate of 1 million tonnes per annum by 2050Carbon dioxide sequestred at a rate of ~30 million tonnes per annum by 2050Carbon dioxide sequestred at a rate of ~110 million tonnes per annum by 205020 GW of pumped storage with large lagoons, 30 GW of interconnection with Europe and substantial demand shifting available for balancing electricity supply and demand7 GW of pumped storage (includign 2 more sites), 15 GW of interconnection with Europe and some demand shifting available for balancing electricity supply and demand4 GW of pumped storage and 10 GW interconnection with Europe available for balancing electricity supply and demandToday’s 3.5 GW of pumped storage and 4 GW interconnection with Europe available for balancing electricity supply and demandMaximium demand, no supplyMaximum supply, no demandEmissions from Electricity Generation, exlcuding CHPEmissions reclassifiedEmissions intensityNote: Emissions from CHP are excluded, while emissions from district heating are included.CCS power stations100% coal/biomass, 0% gas/biogas CCS after demonstration plants66% coal/biomass, 33% gas/biogas CCS after demonstration plants33% coal/biomass, 66% gas/biogas CCS after demonstration plants0% coal/biomas, 100% gas/biogas CCS after demonstration plantsLand dedicated to bioenergyType of fuels from biomassCommercial lighting & appliancesHome lighting & appliancesLivestock and their managementCCS power station fuel mixHydroelectric power stationsIndividuals travel 7% further than today, cars and vans are 80% of 2050 passenger mileageIndividuals travel 7% further than today; cars and vans 74% of 2050 passenger mileageGaseous Hydrocarbon consumptionLiquid Hydrocarbon consumptionSolid Hydrocarbon consumptionUp to 70 TWh/yr of imported bioenergy in 2050Up to 140 TWh/yr of imported bioenergy in 2050Up to 280 TWh/yr of imported bioenergy in 2050Small-scale windGrowth in industryEnergy intensity of industry17% of land used for energy crops17% of UK land used for energy cropsThe proportion of new domestic heating systems using electricity is 20%The proportion of new domestic heating systems supplied using electricity is 30-60%The proportion of new domestic heating systems supplied using electricity is 80-100%Energy balancing and bio-energyONCE YOU'VE MADE YOUR CHOICES PRESS F9Please use the Storage, demand shifting and interconnection lever to choose balancing and storage optionsPlease note: emissions by sector need to account for bio-energy, which is accounted for seperately (in V). Cumulative emissions are estimates based on a linear trajectory between the 5 year time periodsMtCO2e/TWhBio-energy - Production and UseHydro-carbon use by sector and Bio-energy sharePlease note: Bio-energy is not assigned to sectors but is assumed to replace fossil fuels up to maximum demandgCO2e/KWh££mMoney is measured in:I.a.GasI.a.LiquidI.a.SolidUnabated thermal generation Very low production caseStandby / peaking gasOil / BiofuelGas / BiogasCoal / BiomassAll at level 1Total generation supplied to gridElectricity exportsElectricity used in UK, before losses and district heating heat demandREFERENCEDNone in 2050None in 2050~300km of wave farms~600km of wave farms~900km of wave farms1,000 tidal stream turbines4,700 tidal stream turbines10,600 tidal stream turbines3 small tidal range schemes4 tidal range schemes8 tidal range schemesINSTRUCTIONS ARE AVAILBLE AT:http://2050-wiki.greenonblack.com/pages/72LIMITYOUR CHOICETrajectory DescriptionsUK Fossil fuel productionEmissions in the time period (up to and including year above)Cumulative emissionsREFERENCED - All costsColumn1Column2Column3Bio typeCentral caseLow production caseRenewables; Higher electricNuclear; Central electricCCS; Lower electricAtkinsNational gridMark BrinkleyCPREFOTEMARKAL 3.26 Analog~13 3GW power stations delivering ~280 TWh/yr~30 3GW power stations delivering ~630 TWh/yr~50 3GW power stations delivering ~1030 TWh/yrThe dominant non-electric heat source is gas or gas CHP (biogas if available)The dominant non-electric heat source is coal or coal CHP (biomass if available)Shift to zero emission transportChoice of electric or hydrogen cars and vansBy 2050, 20% plug in hybrid electric cars; 2.5% zero emission cars.By 2050, 35% conventional petrol or diesel engine cars; 54% plug-in hybrid vehicles; 11% zero emission vehicles; all buses hybrids; 73% of passenger railway is electrifiBy 2050, 20% conventional combustion engine cars, with 32% in plug-in hybrid vehicles and 48% in zero emission vehicles: 22% of bus travel fully electric or fuel cell electric By 2050 100% electric motor or hydrogen fuel cell; all passenger trains electrified; 50% bus electrified By 2050, 100% electricby 2050, 80% electric, 20% hydrogen fuel cellBy 2050, 20% electric, 80% hydrogen fuel cellBy 2050, 100% hydrogen fuel cellsno improvements from energy efficiency; between 2007 and 2050 emissions increase by 139%1/3 of technical feasible reductions realised; between 2007 and 2050 emissions increase by 78%2/3 of technical feasible reductions realised; between 2007 and 2050 emissions increase by 16%maximum technical feasible reductions realised; between 2007 and 2050 emissions decrease by 46%交通