NuclearWindWaveGeothermalImportsElectricityH.01N.01R.02R.03R.04R.05R.06I.01GasSolarHeatEnergy vectorsH2HydroConversion lossesDistribution losses and own useHeat sourceTransport RoadRailAviationShippingBalancingHeatingLighting & appliancesUnallocatedFoodR.01X.01X.02T.01T.02T.03T.04F.01DomesticFood productionIndustryFood consumptionV.01V.02V.03Net importsV.04V.05RenewablesCommercialWasteW.01Electricity importsIndustry demandL.01LossesY.01Y.02Z.01Solid hydrocarbonsLiquid hydrocarbonsC.01C.02C.03Electricity (delivered to end user)Solar PVHydroelectricTidalLighting and appliancesSupplyDemandIIIIIIIVVectorDescriptionCommentCategorySubcategoryCodeJoulesUnitPJTWhkWhMtoetoethermBtucalorieGW yUnit.PJUnit.kWhUnit.TWhUnit.toeUnit.MtoeUnit.thermUnit.BtuUnit.calorieUnit.GWyearR.07BiomatterEdible biomatterHydrogenV.06[1]TJUnit.TJConversion Calculatoris equivalent toSpace heatingWaterCooking[2][3]Cooking / cateringComputingCooling and ventilationLightingOtherAssumes 100% conversion efficiency in heat and light productionAutogeneratorsBlast furnacesHigh temperature processLow temperature processDrying/separationMotorsCompressed airRefrigerationAll renewables and heat sold assumed to go to space heatingSolid wasteLiquid wasteGaseous wasteW.02W.031.2 Aggregate energy balance 2007Thousand tonnes of oil equivalentCoalManufactured fuel(1)Primary oilsPetroleum productsNatural gas(2)Renewable & waste(3)Primary electricityTotalSupply Indigenous productionExportsMarine bunkersStock change(4)Primary supplyStatistical difference(5)Primary demandTransfersTransformationElectricity generationMajor power producersHeat generationPetroleum refineriesCoke manufacturePatent fuel manufactureEnergy industry useOil and gas extractionCoal extractionPumped storageFinal consumptionUnclassifiedIron and steelNon-ferrous metalsMineral productsChemicalsMechanical engineering etcElectrical engineering etcVehiclesFood, beverages etcTextiles, leather etcPaper, printing etcOther industriesConstructionTransport (6)AirNational navigationPipelinesPublic administrationAgricultureMiscellaneousNon energy use(1) Includes all manufactured solid fuels, benzole, tars, coke oven gas and blast furnace gas.(2) Includes colliery methane.(3) Includes geothermal and solar heat.(4) Stock fall (+), stock rise (-).(5) Primary supply minus primary demand.(6) See paragraphs 5.11 regarding electricity use in transport and 7.25 regarding renewables use in transport.ktoeUnit.ktoeTable 1.14: Overall energy consumption for heat and other end use by fuel 2007SectorEnd useOilSolid fuelWater heatingCooking/cateringHeat total-Overall total 1ServiceIndustry2Overall total²Process useDryling/separationNon-heat totalOverall total1. Total does not include heat sold and renewables.2. Does not include heat sold, blast furnace gas, coke oven gas or renewables and waste.Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change - secondary analysis of data from the Digest of UK Energy Statistics, Office of National Statistics (Purchases Inquiry) and the Building Research Establishment7.2 Commodity balances 20077.2 Commodity balances 2007 (continued) Renewables and wasteWoodPoultry litter, meat Straw, SRC, and SewageLandfill gasWaste(4)Geothermal Liquidwaste and bone, andother plant-basedgas and and active and wavebiofuelsrenewablesfarm waste biomass (3)tyressolar heat(5)ProductionOther sourcesStock change (1)Stock change (1)Total supplyStatistical difference (2)Statistical difference (2)Total demand Major power producers AutogeneratorsMechanical engineering, etcElectrical engineering, etcFood, beverages, etcTextiles, leather, etcPaper, printing, etcTransport(1) Stock fall (+), stock rise (-).(4) Municipal solid waste, general industrial waste and hospital waste.(2) Total supply minus total demand.(5) The amount of shoreline wave included is less than 0.05 ktoe.(3) SRC is short rotation coppice.Includes syngas (coke oven gas)Carbon-based fuelsBlast furnace gasTable: 4.1: Industrial energy consumption by fuel 1970 to 2008Coke and breezeOther solid fuelsBlast Furnace GasCoke oven gasTown gasNatural gasHeat soldPetroleum Total..1995 11996 11. Energy used in transformation activities is excluded from the total from 1996 onwards.Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change - Digest of UK Energy Statistics Annex, Table 1.1.5 Commercial here refers to DUKES categories: Public Administration, Commercial, and Miscellanous. (Corresponds also to Service in DUKES Consumption tables; ie, excludes Agriculture)kWh/p/d (UK)Unit.kWh.p.dA.1 Estimated average calorific values of fuels 2008 GJ per tonnenetgrossCoal:Renewable sources:All consumers (weighted average) (1) Domestic wood (2) Power stations (1) Industrial wood (3) Coke ovens (1) Straw Low temperature carbonisation plants Poultry litter and manufactured fuel plants Meat and bone Collieries General industrial waste Agriculture Hospital waste Iron and steel Municipal solid waste (4) Other industries (weighted average) Refuse derived waste (4) Non-ferrous metals Short rotation coppice (5) Food, beverages and tobacco Tyres Chemicals Textiles, clothing, leather etc. Petroleum: Pulp, paper, printing etc. Crude oil (weighted average) Mineral products Petroleum products (weighted average) Engineering (mechanical and Ethane electrical engineering and vehicles) Butane and propane (LPG) Other industries Light distillate feedstock for gasworks Aviation spirit and wide cut gasoline Aviation turbine fuel Motor spirit House coal Burning oil Anthracite and dry steam coal Gas/diesel oil (DERV)Other consumers Fuel oilImported coal (weighted average) Power station oilExports (weighted average) Non-fuel products (notional value)MJ per cubic metreCoke (including low temperatureNatural gas produced (6) carbonisation cokes)Natural gas consumed (7)Coke breezeOther manufactured solid fuelLandfill gas (8)19-2321-25Sewage gas (8)(1) Applicable to UK consumption - based on calorific value for home produced coal plus imports and, for “All consumers” net of exports.(2) On an “as received” basis; seasoned logs at 25% moisture content. On a “dry” basis 18.6 GJ per tonne.(3) Average figure covering a range of possible feedstock; at 25% moisture content. On a “dry” basis 18.6 GJ per tonne. (4) Average figure based on survey returns.(5) On an “as received” basis; at 40% moisture content. On a “dry” basis 18.6 GJ per tonne.(6) The gross calorific value of natural gas can also be expressed as 11.018 kWh per cubic metre. This value represents the average calorific value seen for gas when extracted. At this point it contains not just methane, but also some other hydrocarbon gases (ethane, butane, propane). These gases are removed before the gas enters the National Transmission System for sale to final consumers. (7) Home produced and imported gas. This weighted average of calorific values will approximate the average for the year that readers will see quoted on their gas bills. It can also be expressed as 10.953 kWh per cubic metre.(8) Calorific value varies depending on the methane content of the gas.Note: The above estimated average calorific values apply only to the year 2008. For calorific values of fuels in earlier years seeTables A.2 and A.3 and previous issues of this Digest. See the notes in Chapter 1, paragraph 1.52 regarding net calorific values. The calorific values for coal other than imported coal are based on estimates provided by the main coal producers, but with some exceptions as noted on Table A.2. The calorific values for petroleum products have been calculated using the method described in Chapter 1, paragraph 1.29. The calorific values for coke oven gas, blast furnace gas, coke and coke breeze are currently being reviewed jointly by DECC and the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau (ISSB).Data reported in this Digest in 'thousand tonnes of oil equivalent' have been prepared on the basis of 1 tonne of oil equivalent having an energy content of 41.868 gigajoules (GJ), (1 GJ = 9.478 therms) - see notes in Chapter 1, paragraphs 1.26 to 1.27.Coal (weighted average of all consumers)GJUnit.GJCokeSolid fuelsGassesNatural gas consumedSewage gasGross calorific values of selected fuelsMJUnit.MJ2.5 Commodity balances 2007 Manufactured fuelsThousand tonnesGWhOther Total BenzoleBlastovenbreezemanuf.manuf. andfurnacecokesolid fueltars (5)Production (1)Stock change (2)Transfers (3)Statistical difference (4)Low temperature carbonisation(1) See paragraph 2.26(4) Total supply minus total demand.(2) Stock fall (+), stock rise (-).(5) Because of the small number of benzole suppliers, figures for (3) Coke oven gas and blast furnace gas transfers are benzole and tars cannot be given separately. for synthetic coke oven gas, see paragraph 2.48. Unit.GWhOf which:Of whichNameName in formulaePetajoulesTerajoulesGigajoulesMegajoulesKilowatt-hoursKilowatt-hours per person per dayTerawatt-hoursGigawatt-hoursTonnes of oil equivalentKilotonnes of oil equivalentMegatonnes of oil equivalentThermsBritish Thermal UnitCalorie (NOT food calorie)Gigawatt-yearsElectricity (supplied to grid)Includes solid manufactured fuels (eg, coke)Includes refined liquid biofuelsHeat as an energy source for heat pumps[1a][4]Source: DUKES 2009 and DECC Energy Consumptions In The UK, July 2009 updateNotesOther / DomesticOther / {Public administration, Commercial, Miscellaneous}Transformation / Autogenerators{Transformation, Energy industry use} / Blast furnacesTransformation / Blast furnacesEnergy Industry use / Blast furnacesUse figures (from DECC Energy Consumptions In The UK, July 2009 update) may not sum to total (from DUKES 2009).Reported in DUKES 2009 under Transformation and Energy industry useThe energy content of the steam generated in the reactor{Transformation, Energy industry use} / Coke manufacture Geosequestration[5]Renewable sources of primary electricity (Wind, Wave, and Hydro) are reported under Transfers in DUKES but are included here.DUKES Aggregate Energy Balance categories[4a]The energy of the blast furnace gas produced is taken from the Production line of DUKES table 2.5 (Commodity balances for manufactured fuels)To be consistent with DUKES, the use of fuels for chemical reactions in the Transformation section (eg, to reduce iron ore), rather than to provide heat, is reported here under Conversion Losses (rather than Industry Demand)Industrial processesInternational[6]Renewables and Waste used for Road transport (as reported in DUKES) are all biofuels; they are included here under Liquid Hydrocarbons[7]Aviation fuels has been split between domestic and international according to the following comment in DUKES (paragraph 3.96):"In order to compile the UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, AEA Energy and Environment need to estimate how aviation fuel usagesplits between domestic and international consumption. Information from AEA Energy and Environment suggest that virtually all aviationspirit is used domestically while just 6 per cent (729 thousand tonnes) of civilian aviation turbine fuel is for domestic consumption."Consumption of aviation spirit in 2007 is negligible so 6% of aviation demand has been allocated to domestic consumptionHydrocarbon fuel power generationNuclear power generationNational renewable power generation[8]Avoidable and partially avoidable food wastage assumed to be 10%; these are reported here under Conversion Losses.n/aTransport / AirTransport / RailTransport / RoadTransport / National navigation, Supply / Marine bunkersTransport / National navigationEnergy consumption[9]Renewables and Waste assumed to be SolidOther / AgricultureTransformation / Petroleum refineries[10]Commodity balances Total electricityOther sources (1) - Stock change Statistical difference (2) Other generatorsCoal extraction and coke manufactureRail (3)Commodity balances (continued)Electricity productionTotal production (4) Major power producers Nuclear Large scale hydro (4) Small scale hydro ..(7) Wind (5) Other generators Large scale hydro204(7) Wind (5)Secondary electricity Coal Oil Gas Renewables OtherPrimary and secondary production (6)Wind Other renewablesTotal production(1) Pumped storage production.(2) Total supply minus total demand.(3) See paragraph 5.11.(4) Excludes pumped storage production.(5) From 2007, major wind farm companies are included under Major Power Producers, see paragraph 5.3(6) These figures are the same as the electricity generated figures in Table 5.6 except that they exclude pumped storage production. Table 5.6 shows that electricity used on works is deducted to obtain electricity supplied. It is electricity supplied that is used to produce Chart 5.3 showing each fuel's share of electricity output (see paragraph 5.28).(7) A re-assessment in 2004 showed that some small scale hydro output previously classified to Other Generators should be classified to Major Power Producers. This re-classification cannot be extended back to earlier years.5.6 Electricity fuel use, generation and supplyThermal sourcesNon-thermal sourcesRenew-Hydro-ables(3)naturalpumped(4)All(1)flowstoragesourcesMajor power producers (2)Fuel used GenerationUsed on worksSupplied (gross)Used in pumpingSupplied (net)Other generators (2)Generation Supplied All generating companiesFuel usedMajor power producers (2)Other generators (2) - Other generators (2)Major power producers (2)5.6 Electricity fuel use, generation and supply (continued)Major power producers (2) (5)Other generators (2) (5)Conv-CCGTentionalthermal(6)Major power producers (2)GeneratedOther generators(1) Thermal renewable sources are those included under biofuels and non-biodegradable wastes in Chapter 7.(2) See paragraphs 5.57 to 5.59 on companies covered.(3) Other thermal sources include coke oven gas, blast furnace gas and waste products from chemical processes.(4) Other non-thermal sources include wind, wave and solar photovoltaics.(6) Includes gas turbines, oil engines and plants producing electricity from thermal renewable sources; also stations with some CCGT capacity but mainly operate in conventional thermal mode.Nuclear power stationsPart of: Transformation / Major power producers, Energy industry use / Electricity generation[11]Nuclear energy as a primary source is the heat content of the steam produced in the reactor.Source: DUKES Table 5.6, Electricity fuel use, generation and supply, Major power producers (other generators are reported under Industry),Source: DUKES Table 5.6, Electricity fuel use, generation and supply, Major power producers (other generators are reported under Industry).Transfers (from Pri mary electricity to Electricity)Energy industry use / Petroleum refineriesEnergy industry use / Coal extractionEnergy industry use / Oil and gas extractionOther energy industry useEnergy industry use / OtherConsumptionNet balance[12]Domestic food production estimated at 60% of consumption, based on ratio of farm gate food value to raw food consumption value [should be revised]Solar energy used to produce crops assumes 100% conversion efficiencyHeat production[13]Production of non-edible solid biomatterStraw, SRC, and other plant-based biomass[14]Source: DUKES Table 7.2, Commidity Balances, Renewables and Wasteand DUKES Table 5.1, Commodity Balances, Electricity.Assumes 100% conversion efficiency from solar to biomassSupply, Electricity industry use / Electricity generationSupply / {Imports, Exports)Net electricity importsElectricity grid transmissionProduction of bioenergy from crops[15]Currently assumes 100% conversion efficiency from crops to biofuelsBiomatter importsBiofuel cropsTotal TransportTotal renewablesTotal wasteTotal lossesTotal importsTotal consumptionLosses of blast furnace gas are included here.Combustion emissions factorsIndustrial coalDieselCommodity selectedHeat energy as an energy transport vector (Includes Heat Sold in DUKES terminology)Includes both food and biofuels. The sign convention is that imports are negative (think of it as the change in stock held abroad)Gaseous hydrocarbonsGlobal warming potentialsGWPCarbon dioxideMethaneNitrous oxideHFCsPFCsSF6140 to 11,7006,500 to 9,200Review of Carbon Emissions Factors 2002 (Blast furnace gas)DUKES 2009 Annex ASources: Source:UK GHG Inventory 2009, Table 1.1Note:GHG Inventory 2009, Table 1.A(a)CH4 and N2O emissions have been estimated using the ratios of emissions of eachto the emissions of CO2 implied by Table 1.A(a) in the GHG inventory. This hasbeen done separately for each form of fuel listed aboveCO2 (Mt)CH4 (Mt CO2e)N2O (Mt CO2e)naCO2CH4N2OTotal N2OTotal CH4Total CO2Total GHG emissionsF gassesHFCs, PFCs, and SF61.A Fuel combustionGHG emissions calculation (MtCO2e)Working notesCombustion emissions from waste are not currently included. I think GHG Inventory also excludes these (shown in the memo note under biomass).Gas lossesIPCC Emissions CategoriesHeat sold under contract is produced by the industrial and commercial sectors but included here under Industry. WorkstreamsWorkstreamCommentsVVIVIIVIIIXIVIXXXIXIIXIIIH2 ProductionInputsOutputsTotal useTotal secondary sourcesTotal primary sourcesTotal adjustmentsAdjust.Secondary sourcesPrimary sources20072010Energy is measured in:Power is measured in:Energy conversionsPower conversionsWattsGWkWGigawattsKilowattsUnit.GWUnit.kWMWMegawattsUnit.MWMtoe/yMtoe per yearUnit.Mtoe.yTime conversionsSecondsyYearUnit.yearFuelTransmission entry capacityNotes:Oil-firedCCGT and turbines20152020202520302035204020452050Thermal efficiency (based on gross calorific values)Energy produced and requiredPlant typeMethodologyEquivalent toJUnit.JWUnit.WGas-firedOwn-use requirements (as percentage of generated electricity)ModulesI.aGas-fired electricity suppliedIncludes CCGT, gas turbines, and oil enginesModuleWS CodeElectricity requiredPrimary sourceFossil fuelsTotal fossil fuelsUsesR.08V.07V.08V.09II.aSource for 2007 data: DUKES 2009, Tables 5.7 and 5.10Requested generationEstimated at 60m people x 2320 Kcal per person per day. Source for per capita consumption: Defra Food Statistics Pocketbook 2009, Section 5.10 v.03v.04v.05v.06Capacity= Available supply= Total generation+ Own-use requirements÷ Thermal efficiencyTotal combustion emissionsDistribution. storage, conversion, and balancingTotal Dist'n, storage, conv'n, and balancing= Total input energy requiredLoad factorVII.aElectricity grid distributionElectricity output from grid÷ (1−Losses)× LossesGrid outputGrid inputBased on ratio of actual 2007 distribution losses to calculated 2007 grid throughput (from DUKES 2009)= Total electricity input to grid= Distribution lossesVII.bBased on ratio of 2007 losses to input primary oils from DUKES 2009Fixed assumptionsDUKES 2009 imply negative conversion losses, so we have assumed conversion losses are actually zero post 2007Electricity requiredLiquid hydrocarbons own useGasesous hydrocarbons requiredHeat requiredActual supplied (min. of requested and available)Available generationVII.cElectricity imports / exports*Y.03Petroleum importsEg, pumped storageProvide all available supplyIII.bNatural flow hydro (ie, excludes pumped storage)Capacity factorInstalled capacity× Capacity factorIII.cIII.dIII.eHydrocarbons from coal, oil, and gas[16]Coal and gas transfer as much as needed; Oil transfers are as reported under Transfers in DUKESNet petroleum importsOil capacityEstimated based on actual generation figuresDerived assumptionsTransformation / Heat generationPopulationHouseholdsGlobal assumptions for all sectorsGDP:ONS ABMI for 2007. Projections assume constant 2.5% growth (figures are 2005 constant prices)GDP (2005 £m)Households:Populations:ONS 2008-based Population Projections. Populations beyond 2033 are interpolated based on given average annual changesSourcesIX.aComponentTechnology°CW / °CCLG Household estimates and projections 1961-2033 (2006-based). Years prior to 2031 linearly interpolated from figures given; Post 2031, growth is assumed to be 1.00% pa, consistent with average trend 2006-2031Temperature projections based on Defra's UK Climate Projections, whose 50% probability level ("central case") estimate, under a medium emissions°C×Rate of heat loss per house=Total energy requiredMean winter temperature differentialWatts / °C%Resisitive heatingSolid-fuel boilerOil-fired boilerDistrict heatingBalanceHeat transportHeat demandWinterSpringSummerAutumnNumber of householdsSource: 2007 temperature from The Met Office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/index.htmlDuration of winter (Dec-Feb)Mean spring temperature differentialMean summer temperature differentialMean autumn temperature differential−Total per household lossesWinter losses / householdSpring losses / householdSummer losses / householdAutumn losses / householdDuration of spring (Mar-May)Duration of summer (Jun-Aug)Duration of autumn (Sep-Nov)Supply oil generation at assumed load factor (oil is assumed to vanish after 2010, so this will only affect the near future)Convert to energy demand by vectorI.bCoal / Gas supplied energy ratio Coal : GasMajor Power Producers onlyActual suppliedSource: DECC, Delivering secure low carbon electricity, A call for evidence, Table 3.1 (Higher end of ranges used.)National Grid, Operating the Electricity Networks in 2020, Initial Consultation assumes 80% summer availability and 60% winter availability for exisiting nuclear plantsSource for 2007 data: DUKES 2009, Tables 5.7, 5.10, and 7.4.Conversion between Installed capacity and Transmission entry capacity (as reported in DUKES) taken as 0.43.Capacity factor assumes no energy spilledOnshore windOffshore windLegacy plant capacities (built prior to 2010)Includes all power producers (not just major power producers)2007 capacity factor taken to be 2007 load factor (on an unchanged configuration basis; see DUKES Table 7.4)Total wind capacityTotal generationIX.bSee module writeup for assumptions and derivationXI.aSeasonal external temperatureEmissionsXII.aLiquidsPetroleum products (weighted average)DUKES 2009 (figures are for fuels in 2008)kg / litreMotor spiritDiesel (DERV)Densities of selected fuelsLiquid fuelsDUKES 2009, Annex AMotor spirit (all grades)DERVEnergy contentXII.blitresElectricXII.cFuel use, aviationAviation FuelCompute energy content of fuelAviation turbine fuel (ATF)VI.aIncludes plant and animal biomassH2Includes manure, sewage sludge, domestic food wasteAll built environment non-heating electricity demand plus cookingV.10XIII.aPer capita consumption 2,320 Kcal per day. Source: Defra Food Statistics Pocketbook 2009, Section 5.10 Per capita consumptionUnrecovered food wasteRecovered food wastePer capita food consumptionCurrent food waste estimated at 10%Waste (recovered)Waste (unrecovered)% of demandNone in 2007Energy flows (2007 actual)Compute total food consumption; add on waste to get demandTotal adjust.AdjustmentsIX.cIX.dTotal DomesticTotal CommercialTotal usesX.aX.bDomestic lighting, appliances, and cookingCommercial lighting, appliances, and cateringXII.dInternational aviationDomestic aviationXII.eInternational shipping (maritime bunkers)XII.fTotal AviationTotal ShippingXIV.aV.aAgriculture and wasteVI.bT.05T.06International shippingXVFossil fuel productionXV.a2007 levels assumed throughoutPrimary oilFinal liquid hydrocarbons producedOwn useIV.aRequested generation from nuclearTotal electricity supply/demand to this pointRequested generation from Coal + CCSRequested generation from thermal plantVIII.aElectricity distribution, storage, and balancingGrid distribution lossesTransfer electricity from V.02 to V.01 to match total V.01 required, accounting for conversion lossesElectricity importedTotal electricity supply/demand prior to generationDistribution, storage, and balancingNet storage flowsXV.bIndigenous fossil-fuel productionY.04Y.05Y.06Oil and gas extraction requirements (% of production)Based on ratio of 2007 energy requirements to oil production from DUKES 2009Coal extraction requirements (% of production)Based on ratio of 2007 energy requirements to coal production from DUKES 2009ReservesQ.01Q.02Q.03Coal reservesOil reservesCompute coal productionCompute oil and gas productionCoal productionElectricity useGasesous hydrocarbon useOil productionGas productionSolid hydrocarbon useXVIXVI.aXVI.bFossil fuel transfersTotal Dist'n, storage, and balancingComputed within this worksheet2007 net use are actuals from DUKES; assumed to be zero thereafterRoad transportRail transportTotal UseTotal Primary SupplyConversion losses, distribution, and own useSupply net of lossesGas reservesSupply, Demand, and Unaccounted supplyA.01Food and biomatter productionAgriculture, waste, and biomatter importsNet balance (should be zero!)VersionRelease dateResponsibleJames Geddeshttp://www.communities.gov.uk/housing/housingresearch/housingstatistics/housingstatisticsby/householdestimates/livetables-households/GCV of dieselCrude oil (weighted average)Natural gas producedOil and gas production up to 2015 taken from DECC projections as af October 2009. See: https://www.og.decc.gov.uk/information/bb_updates/chapters/production_projections.pdfThereafter decline assumed to be 4.5% pa (which is DECC projections out to 2025)Coal production assumed to be constant at 2007 levels. (Approximately the trend show in the Analytical Annex to the Low Carbon Transition Plan)IPCC SectorFuel CombustionIndustrial ProcessesSolvent and Other Product UseLand Use, Land-Use Change and ForestrySector_codeSector_descriptionIPCC Emissions SectorsX1X2Greenhouse gassesGHG_codeGHG_descriptionCO2CH4N2OFCO_2CH_4N_2OHFCs, PFCs, and SF_6Primary Sources1B1AFugitive Emissions from FuelsEmissions (Mt CO2e)Assumed combustion emissions factorsIndustrial coal EFDiesel EFNatural gas EFGHGEmissions producedEmissions reduction due to CCSMt CO2eMt CO2eCombustion emissionsX3% paMetalsMineralsEnergy industry use / Coke manufactureEnergy industry use / Blast furnacesTransformation / Coke manufactureTransformation / Patent fuel manufactureSee sheet {Mappings} for mapping of industry classification used here to DUKES classificationsElectricity is net of that produced by autogeneration for own use (see DUKES Table 1.9)Domestic lighting and appliancesDomestic cookingCommercial space heatingCommercial hot waterCatering1.9 Fuels consumed for electricity generation (autogeneration) by main industrial groups(1)Thousand tonnes of oil equivalent (except where shown otherwise)Iron and steel and non-ferrous metals Blast furnace gas Coke oven gas Natural gas Petroleum Other (including renewables) (2)Total fuel input (3)Electricity generated by iron & steel and non-ferrousmetals (4) (in GWh)Electricity consumed by iron and steel and non-ferrousmetals from own generation (5) (in GWh)Electricity generated by chemicals (4) (in GWh)Electricity consumed by chemicals from own generation (5) (in GWh)Metal products, machinery and equipment Other (including renewables) (2)Total fuel input (3)Electricity generated by metal products, machineryand equipment (4) (in GWh)Electricity consumed by metal products, machinery and equipment from own generation (5) (in GWh)Food, beverages and tobaccoElectricity generated by food, beverages and tobacco (4)Electricity consumed by food, beverages and tobaccofrom own generation (5) (6) (in GWh)(1) Industrial categories used are described in Table 1G.(2) Includes hydro electricity, solid and gaseous renewables and waste.(3) Total fuels used for generation of electricity. Consistent with figures for fuels used by other generators in Table 5.4. (autogeneration) by main industrial groups(1) (continued)Paper, printing and publishingElectricity generated by paper, printing and publishing (4) (in GWh)Electricity consumed by paper, printing and publishing from own generation (5) (in GWh)Electricity generated by other industries (4) (in GWh)Electricity consumed by other industries from own generation (5) (in GWh) Natural gas Electricity generated (4) (in GWh)Electricity consumed from own generation (5)(4) Combined heat and power (CHP) generation (ie electrical output from Table 6.8) plus non-chp generation, so that the total electricity generated is consistent with the "other generators" figures in Table 5.6. (5) This is the electricity consumed by the industrial sector from its own generation and is consistent with the other generators final users figures used within the electricity balances (Tables 5.1 and 5.2). These figures are less than the total generated because some of the electricity is sold to the public distribution system and other users.(6) 2007 figure is likley to change. Inconsistencies which occurred during the reclassification of CHP schemes are currently being investigated. (7) The figures presented here are consistent with other figures presented elsewhere in this publication as detailed at (3), (4), and (5) above but are further dissaggregated. Overall totals covering all autogenerators can be derived by adding in figures for transport, services and the fuel industries. These can be summarised as follows:Fuel input All industry Fuel industries Transport, Commerce and Administration ServicesTotal fuel inputElectricity generatedElectricity consumedSource: GHG Inventory 2009Source: DUKES 2009See module writeup for explanation and assumptionsCompute process emissionsEnergy demand multiplier(i)(ii)(iii)(iv)Compute combustion emissions3. COMBUSTION EMISSIONSAssumed constantNot applicable to the UKCOAL PRODUCTIONOIL AND GAS PRODUCTIONCompute emissionsEMISSIONSEmissions notesFugitive emissions from fuels1B2a1B2bNatural Gas1B1aCoal Mining and Handling1B1bSolid Fuel Transformation1B1c1B2c1B2dVenting and FlaringMajority are methane emissions from coal miningSmall compared to 1B1aSmall compared to 1B2b and 1B2cMajority are CO2 emissions from flaringModelled driver is coal productionModelled driver is oil productionMajority are methane emissions from distributed gasModelled driver is gas consumptionCompute conversions and lossesCONVERSIONS AND LOSSESEmissions from own-use requirementsCompute fugitive emissions from productionFugitive emissions from productionMethane from coal miningM tonnesSource: GHG Inventory 2009, Table 1.1B2Oil and Natural GasMethane emissions from 1B1a (Coal Mining) and CO2 emissions from 1B2 (Oil and Gas) respectivelyIncludes distribution losses for gasHydrocarbon requirementsGas distribution lossesDUKES categoryOther / {Public Administration, Commercial, Miscellaneous}Transformation / Coke ManufactureSupply / Marine bunkers{Transformation, Energy industry use} / RefineriesSupply / Indigenous productionTransformation / Electricity generationSupply / Indigenous production, Transformation / Electricity generationSupply / {Imports, Exports}Energy industry use / Pumped storageEnergy industry use / Losses (Electricity)Energy industry use / Losses (Natural gas)Supply / Indigenous production (Renewables and waste)Requested hydrocarbonsFugitive emissions from gasSource: Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2009, Table 1Based on ratio of actual 2007 distribution losses to calculated 2007 primary demand (from DUKES 2009)Supply / Indigenous production,Energy industry use / {Oil and gas extraction, Coal extraction}Coal requiredGasesous hydrocarbon required+distribution lossesNatural gas requiredLosses in gas distribution are made up of metering differences, leakage, own use, and theft (see DUKES 2009 paragraph 4.50)We assume leakage is what is computed by the IPCC emissions sector 1B2b (fugitive emissions). These are assumed to be proportional to consumption% of total consumptionDummy for charting usesDummy for charting supplyIncompleteEdibleStraw, SRC, other plant-based biomassSupply / {Indigenous production, Stock change}, excludes non-energy useFugitive methane from coal miningFugitive CO2 from Oil and Gas productionCombustion emissions from own useSupply / demand not accounted forTotal unnaccounted supply / demandTotal electricity gridElectricity GenerationMaxTechnology packageStart yearTechnology penetration% of householdsTotal householdsNew households since last periodRetirement of legacy capacityNuclear fissionSee module writeup for assumptionsm2UK incident solar energy, annual averageAssumptionUnitsValueW / m2Solar energy:MacKay, Sustainable Energy -- without the hot air; originally from NASA, Surface meteorology and Solar EnergyUK incident solar energy, south-facing roofConversion efficiencyInstalled areaIncident powerAvailable solar energyEfficiencyAvailable supplym2(ii) Housing thermal efficiency(i) Mean internal temperature(ii) Housing insulation: Average heat loss per house(iii) Hot water demand per householdGrowth rate paDomestic space heating and hot waterTechnology efficiencies -- space heatingTechnology efficiencies -- hot waterGas boiler (old)Gas boiler (new)% of input energyStirling engine μCHPAir-source heat pumpGround-source heat pumpDistrict heating from power stationsIncludes solid biomass boilers, wood-burning stoves, biomass-fired community heatingIncludes community CHPMix of "new" and "old" gas boilers estimated from % of gas/oil boilers that are condensing boilers.ChosenChosen technology pathwayTotal addedTechnology new installation status [start date passed]Installations per year, following periodInstalled technologiesNew build installationsNew installations, current housing stockHouseholds since last periodTotal installationsOld installations removed, current housing stockTotal removalsAssumed to grow at same rate as number of householdsSupply hot water with solar thermal (if any)Hot water demandHot water demand per householdTotal space heating demandResidual hot water demandSupply residual hot water with given technologiesSupply space heating with given technologiesCompute seasonal space heating demandCompute total energy demand by vectorSee module writeupSource: Estimated from BRE Domestic Energy Fact File 2008, figure 36, assuming 20m householdsUseful heat gains per household, estimatedMetabolicEstimated internal gainsHousehold demand net of internal gainsScaled by L&A demandScaled by hot water demandTotal internal gainsCommercial heating and coolingGrowth paEnergy formIV.bDomestic solar thermalV.11Solar thermal heat, used for hot waterUsed solar thermal heatingTotal electricity supply (demand) to this pointTotal electricity supply (demand) prior to generationXVIIDistrict heating effective demandXVII.aConverts heat demand to equivalent electric demandTotal heatsupply (demand) to this pointDistrict heating demandz Factorz Factor converts district heating demand into an effective increase in demand for electricityTransfer heat demand from heat transport to increase in electricity demanded from thermal plant. Balancing term goes in "conversion losses"Heat transport required÷Effective electricity required"Conversion losses"ModePassenger-km (bn)(i) DemandTrajectoryTrajectory choiceTrajectory assumptionsOverall TrajectoryTrajectory selectionChoice of TrajectoryTrajectory forecast a rise in mean winter / spring / summer / autumn temperature of approx. 2 / 2.25 / 2.5 / 2.25 °C by 2050 compared to 1960-1990 averageTrajectories 1-4 assume effect of smart meters of 0, 5, 10, 15% respectivelyPedal cyclesTotal Passenger-kmBreakdown, passenger-kmDomestic passenger transportDomestic freightCARBUSBIKERAILAIRICEEVFCVBreakdown by modeIn our model, includes biofuel combustion emissions. See sector X2Sequestration due to bioenergy crops should be included under X2X1 is not an IPCC sectoral code. Includes domestic aviationMt CO2Passenger-km per person(i) Total travel demand / personkmbn passenger-kmbn vehicle-km1. Aviation fuel2. Combustion emissionsSource: DfT estimatesNational navigation, energy useRoad freightCompute energy content of diesel railSelect electric rail scenarioCompute energy content of diesel roadRail freightHGV Internal Combustion Engine EfficiencySelect marine energy scenarioAverage of Rigid and Articulated efficiency, at 50/50 split, adjusted to gross-calorific values2007 value from total energy consumption and vehicle-km for HGVs from TSGBRail freight, diesel fuel useRail freight, electricity useDiesel-fuelledSource: DUKES 2009, international split estimatedAviation fuel use, growthper annum, following periodGrowth rateper annumEstimates from DfTInternational bunkers (CO2 only)Excluding international bunkersPost-2030 figures extrapolated at 2010-2030 growth rateSource: 2007 data estimates from DUKES. Growth rates reflect CCC scenarios as supplied by DfT. Passenger-km per person per yearDfT estimates, grossed up to include walking, motorcycles and domestic air transport2007 modal shares from DfT, Transport Statistics Great Britain, 2009. Table 1.1; walking share from Table 1.3WALKWalkingCars, Vans, and MotorcyclesBusesRailwaysDomestic air travel% of passenger-kmDIESELELECTRICSource: DUKES 2009, DfT Transport Statistics Great Britain, 2009Mode sharesTechnology penetrations by modePathwayCompute passenger-km by modeCompute passenger-km by mode / technologyCompute energy use by mode and vectorBreakdown, by mode and technology% passenger-kmPetrol / DieselCompute transport demand and emissionsNon-traction electricity useAbout half of the electricty consumed by the rail network is used for non-traction purposes. We have assumed that this energy demandIncludes non-traction useOil and petroleum productsLULUCFABCDWaste arisingTypeMSWMuniciple Solid WasteCommerical and Industrial[1b]Sewage sludgeC&I% of residual, by sourceBiogenic, dryBiogenic, wetNon-biogenic, combustibleodt, millionsEnergySolidSewage. dryScenarioTotal waste arisingSourceEFAvailable for energyMt CO2eGCV of methaneGCVFrom DUKES GCV of natural gas (produced), assuming density of 0.717 kg/m3Mt CH4Methane from landfillsSewage sludge arisingMethane emissions from sewageNitrous oxide emissions from sewagePrimary supply, format for web-based interfaceTrajectory DescriptionsDry biomatter and wasteWet biomatter and wasteAll forms of wasteV.12Emissions credit for injection of biogas into systemLand useSettlementsForests"Carrying on""Breakthrough""Biomass"CropLivestock numbersDairy cowsPoultryEGLivestock numbers, base yearThousand headAll otherYields, base yearStraw from food / biocropsWood from managed forestsManure, (non-poultry livestock)odt / headAnimalMeat (non-poultry livestock)kg / headMeat (poultry)kg / birdMilklitres / cowEggseggs / chickenYield intensitiesVarious units (output per unit of productive capacity)Enteric fermentationManure managementSoil managementCompute production of wasteManureStrawGrain / beet cropsmillion odtmillion odtEffective efficiencyManure arisingFraction collectedStraw collection% collectedManure collectionManure, fraction deposited as slurryFraction deposited as slurryEnergy (grain / beet biocrops)Energy (SRC biocrops)Energy (straw)Energy (wood waste)Energy (manure)Soil useTotal emissionsKyoto agreed sectorsActuals, GHG Inv.Available biomatterWaste conversion scenariosFrom:% efficiencySource: Project 2050 estimatesDry to solids by pelletisationDry to gas by gasification and methanation; Wet to gas by anaerobic digestionConvert dry biomatterConvert wet biomatterconversion efficiencyCompute emissions creditBaseline energy consumption (2007) [1]Basline GHG emissions (2007) [2]Growth in energy demand multiplierGrowth in output index [1]Output index is based on ONS Output and is indexed to 2007=100Output index2007=100DIESEL RAILELECTRIC RAILCOMBUSTION EMISSIONSGrowth, paEnergy split by vectorCompute energy demand by vector1. ENERGY DEMAND BY VECTORTotal energy use = output index × demand multiplierDemand by vector = Total × split by vector2. PROCESS EMISSIONSGrowth in process emissions intensityProcess emissions intensityMultiple of 2007 emissions per unit output indexTotal F-gasesTotal N2OTotal CH4Total CO2Compute CCS impactMt CO2e4.CCS% of emitted CO2 (process and combustion, excluding industry group "Other")fraction capturedOf which, demand by vector from "Other"Of which, CO2 from "Other"Total CO2 emitted, combustion, excl. "Other"CO2 captured, combustionCO2 captured, processTotal CO2 emitted, process emissionsNuclear availability assumed to be 84.4% post-2007 (from DTI); load factor post 2010 assumes some flexibility of nuclear plant used% of productionX2 is not an IPCC sectoral code. CO2 "credit" from bioenergyPost 2007 figures are 2008 figures, assumed to be constantLegacy capacity (built prior to end 2007)Onshore wind, new buildOnshore wind, retirementOffshore wind, new buildOffshore wind, retirementNuclear, new buildFuel use, shipping1. MARINE FUEL2. COMBUSTION EMISSIONSIV.cMt CO2 per yearCO2 sequestered, mechanical air capture, domestic [1]CO2 sequestered, international [1]Energy required for sequestrationTotal sequesteredMechanical air captureEnergy required for mechanical captureHOT WATER DEMANDSPACE HEATING DEMANDSUPPLY SPACE HEATING DEMAND WITH GIVEN TECHNOLOGIESTOTAL ENERGY DEMAND BY VECTOR[7b]Technologies: 2007 penetrations; Max penetration; and start year for roll-out [7][7a]2007 penetrations from BRE Domestic Energy Fact File, and are actually 2006 figures for Great Britain. Figures are rounded to the nearest percentageResitive heating not expected to be rolled out except to parallel heat pump roll-out as part of general electrificationDistributed renewable power generationDistributed solar PVDistributed solar thermalMicro windNuclear power(For ref: area / person)Straw arisingm2 (average, per household)Installed area per householdDomestic solar thermal installed area [1]Fuel-cell μCHPSUPPLY HOT WATER DEMAND WITH GIVEN TECHNOLOGIESHot waterCooling% replacements per year% of units per year, following periodSee IX.a, Domestic Heating, for notes and commentsCompute cooling demandTotal hot water demand, of whichSupply hot water demandSupple space heating demandCOOLING DEMANDHeating and coolingHeat energy demand (eg, for space heating, water heating) and coolingTechnologies: 2007 penetrations; Max penetration; and start year for roll-out [1]Current penetrations chosen to reproduce, as closely as possible, the 2007 breakdown of demand by fuel type(ii) Technology pathwayLighting and appliances, demand per household [1]Cooking, demand per householdCooking, electrification pathwayAs today2050 split:Cooking, energy vector splitCompute cooking demand by energy vectorSelect other lighting and appliances demandCOOKING DEMANDTotal cooking demand, of whichCooking demand per householdTotal lighting and appliance demandLighting and appliance demand per householdCompute total demand by vectorTOTAL DEMAND BY VECTORCatering, total demandCatering, electrification pathwayCatering, current split by energy vectorCooking, current split by energy vectorSmall liquid hydrocarbons demand has been neglectedCatering, split by energy vectorLIGHTING AND APPLIANCESCATERING(i) Demand / EfficiencyTotal supply / (demand) to this pointNon-thermal renewable generationCompute total suppliedDRY BIOMATTERWET BIOMATTERTOTAL SUPPLIEDAvailable bioenergyMETHANE FROM LANDFILLSTotal bioenergy actually suppliedEMISSIONS CREDIT (CO2 ONLY)Emissions creditCombustion + CCSUsed as a holding vector for converting demand net production into importsIncludes refined petroleumsCOAL AND GAS TRANSFERSTransfer coal, petroleum, and gas to V.03, V.04 and V.05 from C.01, C.02 and C.03 respectivelyPetroleum products requiredCO2 sequestered, chemical processes, domestic [1]Chemical processTarget, for chart% heat demandEnergy source / use chartsUseElectricity grid (net of distribution losses)V.bBioenergy importsSource: IEA. Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008UK "fair share" estimated at per capita share. Assumes 20% of 150 EJ for transport, 20% for power generationBioenergy imports, solid [1]Bioenergy imports, liquid [1]Also, from British Energy, closures for Sizewell (1.2 GW in 2035), Heysham 2 (1.23 GW in 2023) and Torness (1.25 GW in 2023)remains constant. See DUKES 2009, paragraph 5.11. Note that we have included an estimate of London Underground useTargetsBase year (1990)(20% of base)(66% of base)% of 2007Actuals, as % of 2007, modelled2050 target2020 target 2020 targetModelled emissionsEmissions as % of base year, adjusted so that 2007 matches actuals% of actualAdjustment factor:2007 Actuals, GHG Inv.Landfill gas and gas from manure are included in the model as gas, not converted to another energy formSubtotal.XVII.aSubtotal.II.aSubtotal.I.bSubtotal.I.aSubtotal.VII.bSubtotal.V.aSubtotal.V.bSubtotal.XVI.aProvide all available supply, up to requested amountzHeat take-off z factorWe assume no emissions from metering differences. Own use and theft is a small proportion of the total losses (~15%) and has been ignoredIII.a.1III.a.27.4 Capacity of, and electricity generated from, renewable sourcesInstalled Capacity (MWe) (1) Wind: Onshore Offshore (2) Shoreline wave Solar photovoltaics Hydro: Small scale Large scale (3)Biomass: Landfill gas Sewage sludge digestion Municipal solid waste combustion Animal Biomass (4) Plant Biomass (5) Total biomass and wastesCo-firing (6)Generation (GWh) Onshore (7) Offshore (8) Large scale (3) Landfill gas Sewage sludge digestion Municipal solid waste combustion (9) Co-firing with fossil fuels Animal Biomass (10) Plant Biomass (11) Total biomassTotal generation Non-biodegradable wastes (12)Load factors (per cent) (13) Onshore wind Offshore wind.. Hydro Biomass (excluding co-firing)Total (including wastes)Load factors on an unchanged configuration basis (per cent) (14) Offshore wind (from 2006 only)(1) Capacity on a DNC basis is shown in Long Term Trends Table 7.1.1 available on the DECC web site - see paragraph 7.74.(2) In 2007 and 2008 excludes Beatrice (10 MW) which was only supplying an offshore oil platform.(3) Excluding pumped storage stations. Capacities are as at the end of December. (4) Includes the use of farm waste digestion, poultry litter and meat and bone. (5) Includes the use of waste tyres, straw combustion, short rotation coppice and hospital waste. (6) This is the amount of fossil fuelled capacity used for co-firing of renewables based on the proportion of generation accounted for by the renewable source.(7) Actual generation figures are given where available, but otherwise are estimated using a typical load factor or the design load factor, where known.(8) Latest years include electricity from shoreline wave but this amounts to less than 0.05 GWh. Generation by Beatrice excluded (see note 2).(9) Biodegradable part only.(10) Includes the use of farm waste digestion, poultry litter combustion and meat and bone combustion. (11) Includes the use of straw and energy crops. (12) Non-biodegradable part of municipal solid waste plus waste tyres, hosptal waste and general industrial waste.(13) Load factors are calculated based on installed capacity at the beginning and the end of the year - see paragraph 7.75.(14) For a definition see paragraphs 7.76 and 7.77.Demand (for charting)Dummy for chartingOwn-use requirementsThermal efficiencySoild fuel input required×Min. of requested and available, for referenceSUPPLY AVAILABLE GENERATIONActual supplied (available generation)These are "known" imports, for 2007. From 2010 onwards, exports are computed if there is excess domestic supply2007 net imports are actuals from DUKES; imports assumed to be zero thereafterV.13Includes wood, straw, and other plant-based biomass, wood chips, garden waste, and MSW. Does not include energy crops, including SRCFrom …To …Convert energy crops% to…ENERGY CROPSPrimary electricity, solar, marine, and net importsOwn-use requirements (as percentage of supplied electricity)Consumption of solid hydrocarbonsConsumption of liquid hydrocarbonsBioenergy contextual dataInternational Aviation and ShippingSubtotal.ConsumptionSubtotal.SupplySubtotal.BalancingUsed in transportUsed in CCS power plantsSupplied from liquid biofuelsSupplied from solid bioenergyUsed in industrySource / UseEnergy supply and demandSupplemental dataCommunity scale gas CHPCommunity scale solid-fuel CHPDistrictLowMediumHigh(i) Cooling demand(i) Heating / cooling comfort level(iv) Target technology penetrations, space heating and hot water (must be less than maximum penetration) [1](iv) Target technology penetrations, cooling (must be less than maximum penetration) [1]Absorption chillerTechnology efficiencies -- coolingTotal space heating demand, of which(i) Total demand for space heating(i) Total demand for hot water(i) Heat / cooling demandRate of replacement of commercial heating / cooling systemsTechnology penetration -- space heating and hot waterTechnology penetration -- cooling% cooling demandTotal cooling demand, of which(i) Total demand for cooling [1]Note that cooling demand is given here as the heat energy removed by the cooling process. However, in the calculation below, the finaldemand for energy for cooling is calculated as the energy required as input to the cooling system.Convert to energy demand by physical vectorRewrite cooling demand as energy required as input to the cooling systemMixed / Nonenew builds get somethingHeating systemsCooling systemsMaximum installation rate (including new builds) [5]Calculation of technology pathway(iv) Non-electric fuel direction(iv) Primary non-electric sourceCombined pathway(iii) Electrification level(ii) Electrification level(iii) Non-electric fuel direction2035 (by Trajectory)2050 (by Trajectory)2025 (by Trajectory)CSS emissions capture [2]CCS applies to CO2 emissions from both process and combustion, excluding the industry group "Other"Combustion emissions, capturedX3 is not an IPPC sectoral code. All CCS, including industryDummy, for chartCarbon captureBioenergy creditConsumption of gaseous hydrocarbonsUsed in commercial heatingUsed in domestic heatingModelled emissions, net of capture, by sector (Mt CO2e)Area conversionshaHectaresUnit.haAcresacresUnit.acrekm^2m^2Square kilometresSquare metresUnit.km2Unit.m2WalesUnit.WalesArea is measured in:PHEVHEVOccupanciesTechnology efficiences -- Electricity [1]Technology efficiences -- Liquid hydrocarbons [1]Technology efficiences -- Hydrogen [1][3a]2007 estimate from total passenger-km and vehicle-km pax / vehicle-kmIn 2007, occupancies were 105.8 pax/vehicle for trains, and 64.8 pax/vehicle for aeroplanesTrain and aircraft efficiencies are given per seat-km, not per vehicle-km2007 estimates (shown in blue) from total passenger-km, vehicle-km and total sectoral energy usage(i) 2050 mode shares(i) 2050 occupancies [3](i) Behaviour(ii) Technology penetrationsTrajectory 1Trajectory 2Trajectory 3Trajectory 4(ii) ElectrificationRailways -- non-traction electricity use [2]millionRailway and aircraft occupancies are pax / seat-km (not pax / vehicle-km)Road freight, distance (HGVs), dieselRoad freight, distance (HGVs), electricSource for 2007 data: DUKESDIESEL ROAD FREIGHTELECTRIC ROAD FREIGHTSubtotal.VIII.aTotal supply (demand) to this pointConversion efficiency from electricity to H2Transfer energy from electrical to H2Hydrogen requiredStorage, demand shifting, backupBoostable capacityGas CCGTAnnual energy flowing through car batteries that could be used for balancingCar EVVolatile energy sectors -- electricityEnergy shock assumptionsDurationIncidenceStorage -- peak powerStorage -- energy storageInterconnection -- Peak powerInterconnection -- Sustained powerSustained% of peak% of averageElectric cars -- shiftable demandAvailability<- This row is directly referenced by VII.c<- These link directly to other modules I.a, I.b, II.a<- These link directly to lines in XII.a and ignore FCVCar PHEVCompute whether pathway has sufficient balancing to deal with peak power requiredCompute whether pathway has sufficient balancing to deal with total energy requiredIf there is any remaining power or energy required, compute standby gas capacity that would be requiredCompute available balancing power and energy under trajectoryAVAILALE BALANCING POWERCompute the total utilization of the balancingDaysUnit.daydhHoursUnit.hourmMinutesUnit.minutePower to energy conversionAverage power for given energyConversion.to.average.powerFrom unitTo unitFactorAnnual energy for given powerConversion.to.annual.energyBalancing power available under trajectoryBalancing energy available under trajectoryEnergy per second for given powerConversion.to.energy.per.secondCompute size of shockSIZE OF SHOCKTotal balancing powerTotal balancing energyExcess (shortfall) in power supplied when shock occursTotal excess (shortfall) in powerExcess (shortfall) in energy supplied when shock occursWILL BALANCING PROVIDE SUFFICIENT POWER?Excess (shortfall) in power after application of balancing loadExcess (shortfall) in powerboosting thermal plantdrawing from interconnectionshifting demand from electric vehiclesdrawing from pumped storageRemaining excess (shortfall) in powerExcess (shortfall) in energy after application of balancing loadWILL BALANCING PROVIDE SUFFICIENT ENERGY?Balancing power usedBalancing energy usedTotal balancing power usedTotal balancing energy usedHOW MUCH BALANCING HAS BEEN USED?% capacityRemaining excess (shortfall) in energyAfter all balancing loadsExcess (shortfall) in energyPower required to supply energyMaximum of A or BAssumptions about standby generationelectricity/capacityHOW MUCH STANDBY CAPACITY IS REQUIRED?Standby capacity requiredWhat are the consequences for greenhouse gas emissionselectric/thermal energyAssumes is gas CCGT. Should change if use cheaper unitsFuel sourceNaturalGasMust match name used in e.g. EF.NaturalGas.CO2 named rangeEmissions factor for standby fuelHeat required to produce Emissions from heat productionMtCO2eWHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS?Probable annual emissionsTotal balancing capacity usedBalancing capacity usedMaximum balancing capacity usedEnergy security contextual dataNATIONAL NAVIGATIONPASSENGER-KM BY MODEPASSENGER-KM BY MODE / TECHNOLOGYENERGY DEMAND BY MODE AND VECTORSUMMARY BY TRANSPORT TYPE AND EMISSIONSNote that Coal+CCS capacity is stated in term of gross capacity, ie, before parasitic load, which is not the convention used in other sectorsSource: DTI assumptions for coal availability are 90%. 2007 figures are actual load factors for 2007. We have used an intermediate load factor of 80%.Source: Redpoint, Carbon Capture and Storage Demonstration: Analysis of Policies on coal/CCS and financial incentive schemes, November 2009for current efficiencies (figures in that document have been rounded). DECC assumptions for long-term efficiency improvementsAvailable capacityAvailable net generationGross generationAssumes CCS systems are improved on all plants, not just new plantMicro wind, capacity [1]MICRO WIND GENERATIONConversion efficiency, incident sunlight to electricityDISTRIBUTED SOLAR PVFor reference÷Input solar powerIncident solar intensityArea / householdArea / personTotal areaLoad factor [1]Hydroelectric capacity (natural flow) [1]Source for 2007 data: DUKES 2009, Tables 5.7, 5.10, and 7.42007 capacity actually DNC (from Table 5.7)However, a difference between DNC and installed capacity only arises for small-scale hydro, which is ~10% of totalHYDROELECTRIC GENERATIONGeothermal capacity [1]GEOTHERMAL GENERATION"Food production"M haMillion hectaresUnit.MhaArable, for food crops (grades 1–3)Arable, for 1st gen energy crops (grades 1–3)Grassland, for 2nd gen energy crops (grades 3–4)Grassland, for livestock and fallow (grades 3–5)Arable, for 2nd gen energy crops (grades 1–3)odt / haFirst-generation biocropsManure (non-poultry livestock)% pa (2007–2020)% pa (2020–2050)Livestock number growth ratesYield growthEmissions intensity growth, enteric and manureSOILENTERICMANURETotal emissions growth, soil managementForestry arisings collection, old forestsEmissions intensities, enteric and manure, base yearTotal emissions soil, base yearkg CO2e / headkg CO2e / otd slurryCalorific values, base yearSecond-generation biocropsTotal emissions, soil managementEmissions intensities, enteric and manurekg CO2e / unitEmissions intensities growth, enteric and manureC1C2Arable, for food crops (grades 1–3)Arable, for 1st gen energy crops (grades 1–3)Arable, for 2nd gen energy crops (grades 1–3)Grassland, for livestock and fallow (grades 3–5)Forests, exisiting, change per yearChange in existing forestsLAND USE AND LIVESTOCK NUMBERSYIELDSFORESTSForest areaOldNewExisiting forestNew forestPRODUCTION OF WASTEWood arising, old forestTotal forestry arisings, new forestsM odtWood arisings collected, new forestCompute production of first-generation biocropsCompute production of second-generation biocropsPRODUCTION OF FIRST-GENERATION BIOCROPSPRODUCTION OF SECOND-GENERATION BIOCROPSConversion efficiency, first-generation biocrop to biofuelTotal biocrops, for referenceCompute emissions credit from first-generation biocropsLivestockHorticultureArableEnergy use, total by areaEnergy use, breakdown by fuelCompute energy useLivestock (scale with dairy cows)Horticulture (constant)Agriculture (scale with farmed land area)Total, of which, by fuelIncludes use of energy in agricultureTotal MSW waste arisingTotal C&I waste arisingTotal CDW, wood waste arisingStreamLandfillRecycled% total waste arisingNon-biogenic, otherCDWType of waste arisingEnergy content of wasteM tonnes CH4Landfill gas arisingTotal sewage sludge arisingWASTE DESTINATIONS, MSW and C&I% of waste for energyMt CH4Construction and Demolition WasteWood onlyDRYWETSOLIDINORGSEWAGEOTHEREnergy from unsegregated MDW, C&I, and CDWEnergy from segregated wet waste for recyclingWaste capture for energy, CDWCDW for energyConstruction and DemolitionSEGREGATED WET WASTEUNSEGREGATED MSW, C&I, AND CDW % of recycled wet wasteWet waste segregated from recycling for energyWet waste from recycling for energy% of waste to recyclingWET to ADHence, total energy available by waste typeEnergy available by energy vectorLandfill gas captured% of gasLandfill gas recoveredLandfill gas captured (Note: remainder is lost as methane emissions)Fraction capturedTotal landfill gas arisingFraction captured that is used for energyFraction lostLandfill gas emittedLandfill gas for energyCaptured landfill gas used for energy (Note: remainder is flared)Chosen to give correct 2007 recovered gas used for energyEmissions factors [1]GCV of methane [2]Source: UK Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2009, Table 6.AFigures inferred to produce 2007 emissions as reported by GHG Inventory. (Sewage sludge does not include industrial waste water,which is included in the GHG Inventory figures.)Energy and emissions from sewageENERGY AND EMISSIONS FROM SEWAGEtonnes CO2e / odt wasteFraction recovered for energySewage used for energySewage sludge for energy% of sewage arising% of total wood waste arisingEmissions factor N2OCO2e / odtEmissions (N2O)Mt CO2eResidualEmissions factor CH4Emissions (CH4)of whichMSW for recylingC&I for recylingMSW for energyC&I for energyForestry emissionsAgricultural emissionsForestry5A25BCropland5CGrassland5ELULUCF effective emissions factorsLULUCF emissionsTotal LULUCF5GAssume imports of crude oil remain constantRefine imports+production-exportsImport / Export as needed to make up demand in petroleum productsBalancing imports(Not used)Crude oil importsAssume exports of crude old decline in proportion to domestic productionDomestic production of crude oilCrude oil exportsAssumed to decline in proportion to productionCrude oil exports [1]% of refined hydrocarbons% of primary oil inputRefinery own-use energy requirements [3]Refinery losses [2]Compute primary oil input to refineryPRIMARY OIL INPUTDomestic productionTotal refinery primary oil input2007–2025 (by Trajectory)2025–2050 (by Trajectory)Lighting and appliances (exlcuding catering), total demandCoal and fossil wasteRoad freight, HGV efficiencies, dieselRoad freight, HGV efficiencies, electricMarine bunkers, fuel use, growth [1]The Desertec Foundation, Clean Power From Deserts, Whitebook, 4th editionAssumes UK share is 10%Soil emissionsDomestic solar PV installed capacity [1]5 m2 is a thermal unit sized approximately for 60% of annual demandMarine algaeVI.cArea of sea farmedYieldYield, macro algaeDry tonnes / hectareAlgaeEnergy content, macro algaeGROW ALGAEArea farmedEnvironmental heatEnergy crops (second generation)V.14Second-generation crops grown for energy useFirst-generation crops grown for energy useV.15Methane from wasteEnergy crops (first generation)First-generation energy crops are always converted to liquidsConvert gasesous wasteGASESOUS WASTEUsed in heatingUsed in refineriesSupplied from biogasIn the event of a 5 day peak in heating and drop in windRelease candidateUsed in unabated power plantsOil input requiredCoal input requiredThermal efficiency (weighted av. of gas and dual-fired)Gas input required% collected of manure deposited as slurryLookup of technology pathwayPathway chosen is …Fixed proportion of lossesNo longer usedENERGY USESource: DECC, Delivering secure low carbon electricity, A call for evidence, Table 3.1, which is taken to imply that all oil-fuelled generation will be closed by end 2015.1.0.0Electricity consumption (to run pump)% of heat suppliedElectricity usage Electric air conditioner (old)Electric air conditioner (new)Gas boiler (new) is 0.1% in all cases where it would otherwise be zero. This is a modelling trick to ensure that, in the short-term, 1.0.1Changes since last versionAdded intermediate levels 2 and 3 to VII.a Electricity ImportsNuclear, retirement of new buildInputs (NOT USED)Wave and TidalVery lowCorrected minor typosLevel% of base yrMany different units are commonly used for energy, power, and area.To change the default units, make a selection in the Preferences worksheet.The emissions chart shows emissions as a percentage of base year levels.from each category. There are two "negative emissions" categories:chartEmssionstableThe modelled figures are computed from the energy consumption, and are unadjusted.The "% of actual" figure shows the 2007 modelled emissions as a percentage of 2007actual emissions. To produce the "% of base year" figures here and in the chart, the modelledemissions have been adjusted by the "% of actual" figure so that the 2007 modelled emissionsmatch the 2007 actual emissions.Sources andusesExports and importsFor reference, these tables show how much of each physical form of energy comes from bioenergyof a number of sectors.ContentsInstructionsPreferencesControlGlobal assumptionsConstantsCombustion Emissions Factors{Workstreams}{Modules}{Energy vectors}{Emissions}DUKES …I.a – XVII.a2007 – 2050This worksheetSettings for the units used to display energy, power, and areaInstructions for useMain user interfanceConversionsCommon unitsAssumptions used across sectors (GDP, population, households; UK incident solar energy)Properties of selected fuels (calorific values, emissions factors, density) and global warming potentials of greenhouse gasesSummary of emissions factor used for each energy vectorMaster list of all Greenhouse Gases and IPCC sectorsMaster list of all workstreams (I, II, III, …)Master list of all workstream modules (I.a, I.b, II.a, …)Master list of all energy vectors (aka, fuel types) One worksheet for each Module. Computes energy flows and emissions for that ModuleFigures used to produce the charts in "Control," summarised from the annual sheetsOne worksheet for each year modelled. Brings together all energy flows and emissions for that yearFor reference, actual 2007 energy consumption, derived from DUKES and other sources, using the energy vectors and modules defined hereinAdded cover sheet, rearranged order of some worksheets, deleted some worksheetsSmall changes to Wave and TidalUpdated the wording of the levels in the Control sheetDemonstration plants only; no roll-out of CCSNo development of macro-algae cultivationThe dominant non-electric heating fuel is coal (biomass if available)The dominant non-electric heat source is heat from power stationsSpace heating demand increases by 50%, hot water demand by 60%, cooling demand by 250%Space heating demand increases by 30%, hot water demand by 50%, cooling demand by 60%Energy used for domestic cooking remains at 63% electricity and 37% gas100% electricEnergy demand for lights & appliances increases by 33%. Energy for cooking is stable60% electricity and 40% gas (no change from 2007)Carbon dioxide sequestration rate of 1 million tonnes per annum by 2050Update the Pathways (Baseline now called B; others are X, Y, Z, and AIn heating (IX.a and IX.c), swapped pathways 9 and 11Changed the legend of the electricty chart from "conventional thermal plant" to "unabated thermal generation"Moved heat-led production of electricity (domestic and commercial CHP) to "unabated thermal generation"Unabated thermal generation1.0.41.0.31.0.2Used in electricityMatching electricityemissions factorChanges to aviation figures to match CCC efficiency assumptionsTrajectories are numbered in this worksheet. A=1, B=2, C=3, D=4Note also that the ordering of trajectories in the "Trajectory assumptions" data is A, C, B, D.1.0.5Changed the ordering of trajectories B and C (2 and 3) in VI. a (Agriculture)Energy available by energy vector (note that both DRY and WET waste end up in the dry biomatter stream)BioenergyBiomatter to fuel conversionAgriculture and land useChanged "Bioenergy production" to "Bioenergy"Changed "Bioenergy production from agriculture and waste" to "Biomass to fuel conversion"Updated hydro trajectories very slightlyFuel proportions by typeAdded "key facts" table to "Output (figures)" and corresponding calculations -- for online versionImports, Concentrated solar power in desertsConcentrated solar powerUpdated Electicity Imports (from solar power in deserts)Updated Wave and Tidal Stream assumptionsImported energyRUpdated Pathways A-FWave generation, installed capacityTidal stream, installed capacityAssumes no energy spilledTidal streamTidal rangeTidal range, installed capacitySource: DECC estimatesWAVE GENERATIONTIDAL STREAM GENERATIONTIDAL RANGE GENERATION1.0.6Cosmetic changes to Control sheetExample pathwaysWe intend to add further terms based on feedback from users.No new nuclear power installed; estimated closure of final plant in 2035Little wave and tidal stream in 2030 and none in 2050; no tidal rangeNo deployment of geothermal electricity generationNo significant solar PV capacity is installedQuantity of waste increases by 30%; almost 10-fold reduction in quantity to landfillNo electricity imports, other than for balancingToday’s 3.5 GW storage & 4 GW interconnection with Europe for balancing4 GW storage & 10 GW interconnection with Europe for balancing7 GW storage with 2 more pumped storage, 15 GW interconnection & some demand shifting20 GW storage with large lagoons, 30 GW interconnection & substantial demand shiftingAverage room temperature increases to 20°C (a 2.5°C increase on 2007)Average room temperature increases to 18°C (a 0.5°C increase on 2007)Average room temperature decreases to 17°C (a 0.5°C decrease on 2007)The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 20%The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 30-60%The dominant non-electric heat source is gas (biogas if available)The dominant non-electric heat source is coal (biomass if available)The dominant non-electric heat source is waste heat from power stationsSpace heating demand stable, hot water demand increases by 25%, cooling demand stableSpace heating demand drops by 25%, hot water demand by 10%, cooling demand by 60%The proportion of non-domestic heat supplied using electricity is 0-10%, as todayThe proportion of non-domestic heat supplied using electricity is 20%The proportion of non-domestic heat supplied using electricity is 30-60%The proportion of non-domestic heat supplied using electricity is 80-100%A mixture of gas/biogas, coal/biomass, and heat from power stationsEnergy demand for domestic lights and appliances increases by 20% (relative to 2007)Energy demand for domestic lights and appliances is stableEnergy demand for domestic lights and appliances decreases by 40%Energy demand for lights & appliances decreases by 5%; decreases by 20% for cookingEnergy demand for lights & appliances decreases by 30%; decreases by 25% for cookingRoad haulage makes up 73% of distance, using conventional engines. Rail all dieselSame as level 2No geosequestrationSpilled energyPrior / following periodGlossaryBrief description of a few termsCHANGELOGChange history since version 1.0.0Reference dataModule worksheetsAnnual energy and emissions balance sheetsCalculator control and outputIntermediate working List of principle entities used in the modelEnergy demand for lights & appliances increases by 15%; decreases by 5% for cookingIntermediate outputSECTIONWORKSHEETDESCRIPTION(Derived from data in "Constants")Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC)Added the beginnings of a glossaryThe term presently used by National Grid to describe the capacity of a generating plant. It is the maximum power deliverable by the power station at the Grid Entry Point. net of the station's own use.Used in the Calculator to describe energy that is produced (eg, by wind generation) but is not used.Certain input assumptions describe the annual growth in a particular quantity over a five-year period. (The Calculator works in five-year chunks, apart from the initial period from 2007 to 2010.)When the annual growth rate is intended to apply for the five years following the year shown, the table should be labelled something like "Annual growth, following period." When the growth rate applies to the five years preceding the year shown, the table will be labelled "Annual growth, prior period."Note that the growth is assumed to take place from or to 31 December of the year shown.2007 (Actual, frozen)2007 (Consistent)Downloads of selected statistical tables from the DECC websiteNB: Emissions (in blue) are modelled from energy consumption and may not agree preciselyconstant factor so that 2007 modelled emissions match 2007 actual emissions.NB: Modelled emissions adjusted to match 2007 actuals. See note below emission table.with 2007 actuals. However, % of base year figures (in black) have been adjusted by aFood consumption [UNUSED]Domestic aviation [UNUSED - see XII.a]National navigation [UNUSED - see XII.a]Tidal [UNUSED - See III.c]Domestic hot water [UNUSED - See IX.a]Commercial hot water [UNUSED - See IX.c]Deleted XIII.a (Food consumption). Total food consumption. Not presently usedBy 2050, conventional fuelled cars and vans cover 80% of mileage By 2050, plug-in, electric & fuel cell cars & vans cover 65% of passenger distanceBy 2050, plug-in, electric & fuel cell cars & vans cover 80% of passenger mileageSome shift from road to rail and water, and more efficient enginesScenarios are roughly: (1) Mixed; (2) Mostly solids and gas; (3) Mostly liquids and gas; (4) GasHere we assume shock doesn’t cross yearsNCV / GCVNCV / GCV:Conversion from Net Calorific Value to Gross Calorific ValueRevised the Instruction sheetGeneral cosmetic changes and tidying upThis worksheet contains definitions of some terms used in the Calculator. It is by no means exhaustive.GENERAL INSTRUCTIONSOVERVIEW OF THE 2050 CALCULATOROverview of the Control worksheetLook here to see the total greenhouse gas emissions between now and 2050Look here for additional information on bioenergy and the uses of some different forms of energyLook here to see the electricity generated and demandedLook here to see the total energy consumption by fuel and the total demanded by broad sectorLevels 1 to 4 describe the level of effort needed to change this sectorTrajectories A to D descibe possible outcomes, but are not necessarily harder or easierStep 1 Step 2Step 3Step 4Click here for example pathwaysClick here for descriptions of each level or trajectory1 (or A)2 (or B)3 (or C)Press F9 to relcalculate the model. (You can do this at any time.)Descriptions of each trajectory can be found by clicking the other disclosure boxin the top margin.can be found by clicking the "disclosure box" in the top margin where shown.The solid line shows total net emissions. The coloured areas show direct emissionsThis refers to the CO2 sequestered by CCS plant or geosequestration technology.Refers to the CO2 sequestered, by plants, during the production of bioenergy.ADDITIONAL NOTES AND EXPLANATIONSGo to the "Control" worksheet. (See the schematic to the right for an overview).On the left hand side, chose the required level or trajectory for each sector.More helpThese tables do not show how much bioenergy is used in each sectorgiven assumptions about the trajectory of each sector between now and then.energy flows and the resulting emssions.You select what trajectory you think is appropriate for each sector; the model calculates theThe aim is to chose trajectories that meet our 2050 emissions target (of 20% of 1990 levels)NOW PRESS F9MAKE SELECTIONS BELOW:(See the additional notes below for a description of how to read this chart. Briefly,See if you managed to hit the target. Look at the emissions chart for the totalENERGY OUTPUT CHARTSCHOOSE TRAJECTORIES HEREEMISSIONS OUTPUT CHARTSSOURCES AND USES OUTPUT TABLESEMISSIONS OUTPUT TABLEgreenhouse gas emissions.Some examples of pathways (that is, combinations of trajectories) that do meet the targetThis model computes energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for the UK between now and 2050~240 TWh/yr from 25-40 CCS power stations; comparable to current gas & coal generation~340 TWh/yr from 35-60 CCS power stations; comparable to total current demand~13 3GW power stations delivering ~280 TWh/yr~30 3GW power stations delivering ~630 TWh/yr~8,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~50 TWh/yr. ~13,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~80 TWh/yr~10,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~180 TWh/yr~17,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~310 TWh/yrSupply of electricity is maintained at current levels of 5 TWh/yrSupply grows slowly, reaching 7 TWh/yr by 2050Supply grows more quickly, reaching 8 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustained~300km of wave farms; 1,000 tidal stream turbines; 3 small tidal range schemes~600km of wave farms; 4,700 tidal stream turbines; 4 tidal range schemesSupply of geothermal electricity grows slowly to 7 TWh/yr in 2035 and is sustainedSupply grows quickly reaching 21 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustained4m2 of photovoltaic panels per person in 2050, supplying ~60 TWh/yr of electricity 5.4m2 of photovoltaic panels per person in 2050, supplying ~80 TWh/yrAs today, a negligible proportion of buildings have solar thermal in 2050~30% of suitable buildings get ~30% of their hot water from solar thermalAll suitable buildings get ~30% of their hot water from solar thermalAs today, no discernable supply of electricity from micro-wind turbinesSupply increases to 1.3 TWh/yr by 2020 and is sustainedInstalled in all ~450,000 suitable domestic properties; supplies 3.5 TWh/year from 2020Overall quantity of waste grows by 60%; quantity of waste to landfill remains the same30 TWh/yr of electricity imported from Southern Europe70 TWh/yr imported from UK 10% share of international desert solar project The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 0-10%, as todayGreater modal shift to rail and water; more efficient HGVs; more efficient logisticsCarbon dioxide sequestration rate of ~30 million tonnes per annum by 2050Carbon dioxide sequestration rate of ~110 million tonnes per annum by 20501.0.7Fixed Pathway B, which was a duplicate of Pathway A. Updates to Pathway E.the solid line must dip below the 20% line in 2050.)The Calculator makes no assumptions about the sector in which bioenergy is used. Instead, bioenergyis added to the available energy in each of the three physical forms (solid, liquid, or gas).sources. In addition, they show how much solid, liquid, and gaseous hydrocarbons are used in eachThe estimated exports or imports are based on particular assumptions of UK domestic production.The base year is 1990. The 2050 target is currently to reach 20% of base year levels.Conversion efficiencies 2020 - 2050Conversion efficiencies 2009 - 2020 [1](i) Industry Output Growth(ii) Energy intensity(ii) Energy Intensity of Output(i) Growth of industry outputBiomassCoal and BiomassAverage implied load factor for solid hydrocarbonsBuild ratesGas - Coal fuel mixSolid HydrocarbonGaseous HydrocarbonFuel SplitPostPreSolid Hydrocarbon Pre and Post combustion RatiosV.O5New Build split between type of CCS plantCoal, biomass, gas, and oil-fired; non-CCSBiomass/Coal powerCCS EquipmentSolid Hydrocarbon Combustion emissions, unabatedGaseous Hydrocarbon Combustion emissions, unabatedResidential heating requirementsHot water electricity demandProportion of hot water resistiveProportion of hot water ASHPProportion of hot water GSHPWinter temperature differenceSpace heating electricity demandProportion of heat resistiveProportion of heat ASHPProportion of heat GSHPCommercial heating requirementsBalancing imports of electricity<- These link directly to the year summary sheetsdaystimes per yearhalt any export of electricityaResidential hot waterAdditional hot water demand due to less solar PVResulting additional electricity demand, assuming same fuel mixAdjustment factor for worsening COPsSolar hot water shortfall, covered by electricity, after adjusting COPsExtra existing demand for worsening COPsTotal extra electricity demandbResidential heatingExisting winter temperature differenceAdditional temperature differenceTotal temperature differenceLoss per housePower required per houseWatts / houseTotal power requiredResulting electricity demandLess existing electricity demandGives additional electricity demandcResidential totalTotal extra electricity demand above annual averageeCommerical heatingExisting annual average space heating demandTotal electricity demandfCommercial total…after halting any exports of electricityModule nameVector nameCombinedConventional thermal plantIII.c.WaveIII.c.TidalStreamIII.c.TidalRangeXII.a.roadXII.a.railXII.a.aviationXII.b.roadXII.b.railXII.b.nationalnavigationGaseous hydrocarbon fuel input requiredTidal range, Percentage of West coast sites (remainder for the east coast)Tidal range - WestTidal range - East(i) Level of new buildExports of biomass (supply - available)Supply all remaining demand with solid hydrocarbon then gaseous hydrocarbon thermal generationCoal/biomass capacityCCS Equipment & Base plant (parasitic load)NoteLand ManagementLivestock Management(i) Land Management(ii) Livestock ManagementDWEHydrogen Production method, shareSMR - CentralSMR - DistributedFrom ElectrolysisGas requiredFrom SMR - CentralFrom SMR - DistributedFuel requiredCarbon Capture Storage (CCS)See Demo baseline assumptions below. Note that Coal+CCS capacity is stated in term of gross capacity, ie, before parasitic load, which is not the convention used in other sectorsCCS, new build excluding demos[1]Demo baseline assumptions, installed gross capacity (GW) [1]Load factor [3]For info: Base Plant - Own-use requirements (% of gross output) [2]Unabated thermal efficiency (based on gross calorific values) [2]Total parasitic load: CCS Equipment and Base Plant - Own-use requirements (% of gross output) [2]CCS Installed capacity by type, Gross (GW)2. Pre Combustion SH (Coal/Solid Biomass) CCS1. Post Combustion SH (Coal/Solid Biomass) CCS3. Gaseous Hydrocarbon (Natural gas/Biogas) CCS4. Emissions1. Post Combustion Solid Hydrocarbon + CCS2. Pre Combution Solid Hydrocarbon + CCS3. Gaseous Hydrocarbons + CCS(ii) Solid / Gas hydrocarbon fuel directionBiomass installed capacity, cumulative (GW) [1]The biomass installed capacity does not make any assumption on the split between conversions of existing plants and new build.However, it is assumed if there are more ambitious levels of biomass electricity generation this may affect the central scenario for unabated coal in thermal generation to 2025. Existing coal plants converted to biomass - cumulative (GW) [2]This is modelled by reducing the use of unabated coal from 2015 to 2025, which would be due to existing plants using dual fuel or converting to dedicated biomass plantsCoal/Biomass-firedLoad Factors (constant)Assumed solid Hydrocarbon split: Coal/Biomass, based on biomass new capacity trajectoryTransmission entry capacity (GW)Closure rates for coal 2010-2025 are taken from summer 2010 UEP projections from DECC applied to 2010 figures (assumed to be DUKES figure for 2009). Installed Capacity (GW)Remaining Electricity demand (Demand - Supply from non-hydrocarbons)Mean winter temperatureInternal gains per housein comparison, annual meanPower required as multiple of annual meanCoal/BiomassCCSTotal CCS Installed CapacityThe annual closure rate between 2025 to 2030 is taken as the average UEP closure rate between 2010-2025InformationInformation typeB.01Installed CapacityNo. of unitsNumber of unitsInformation summaryInstalled Capacity B.02B.03Land UseNumber of Units3 Installed Capacity2 Installed CapacityH2 Production for TransportLevel 4 - Fixed and floating turbine splitFixedFloatingEnergy produced and required - Total Wave & TidalEnergy produced and required - WaveEnergy produced and required - Tidal StreamEnergy produced and required - Tidal RangeEnergy produced and required - Total Domestic passenger transportEnergy produced and required - RoadEnergy produced and required - RailEnergy produced and required - AviationEmissions produced - Total Domestic Passenger TransportEmissions produced - RailEmissions produced - RoadEmissions produced - AviationSee demo baseline belowEnergy produced and required - Total Domestic FreightEnergy produced and required - Road freightEnergy produced and required - Rail freightEnergy produced and required - National NavigationEmissions produced - Domestic Freight TotalLiquid Hydrocarbon emissionsEmissions produced - National Navigation2007 Technical Potential (UK households)Solid wall insulation Cavity wall insulationFloor insulation SuperglazingLoftsDraughtproofingScenario 1Scenario 2Scenario 3Scenario 4Insulation measures for average leakinessShock external temperaturePeak space heating demandElectricity exports (positive are exports from UK to Europe)Cooling electricity demandPeak in heatingFall in coolingFall in renewable energyResidential coolinggCommerical cooling(Fall) in electricity demand for commercial cooling(Fall) in electricity demand for residential coolingB.04BlankBarResidentialLess Onshore windLess Offshore windLess Distributed solar PVLess Micro windPeak electricity demand2050 chart showing how this all fits togetherStandby+ bar- barAnnual average electricity demandAnnual average electricity supplyAnnual average electricity exportsAnnual average UK electricity demandResidential: Extra heating for cold weatherResidential: Worse heat pump performance when coldResidential: No solar hot waterCommerical: Extra heating for cold weatherCommercial: Worse heat pump performance when coldResidential: Less air conditioningCommercial: Less air conditioningHalt any export of electricityBoost thermal plantDraw from interconnectionDraw from electric vehiclesDraw from pumped storageStandby powerExra standby for when storage runs outimcm/dmcm/d natural gasUnit.mcm.dInternal gains per householdJ/Householdi.e., no cooling required in winter% of mean annual outputLess WaveCurrent load factors on boostable capacityThermal plant - availability for winter peakDifference between annual average output of thermal power stations and the peak output available to meet the peak2007 figures are from the National Grid Winter Outlook 2010/2011. Assumes they all converge on 90% by 2050.Hot water resistiveHot water ASHPHot water GSHPHeating resistiveHeating ASHPHeating GSHP% extra power requiredCOP winterCOP average over the year% extra power required in winterWhat electricity generation mix will there be in 2050?Bioenergy SupplyHow much will people travel?How will people travel?Will flights increase or decrease?How will businesses transport goods?Will international shipping reduce their energy consumption?Heating and hot waterHow hot do people want their homes and how much water do they want?How many home insulation measures will their be?Solar panels for hot water?What boilers and heating systems will service my demand?People's demandTechnical advancesHow much will UK manufacturers produce?How energy intensive will production be?How much temperature control will businesses choose?How will businesses heat and cool their buildings?How much energy for cooking and electricals will businesses demand?Will their be technological change?Will we deploy mechanised carbon capture?Question?What type of biomass will be made?How much biomass will domestic agriculture produce?How will waste be treated?Will algae be farmed for biomass?Will biomass be imported?Lighting, appliances & cookingManufacturing industriesBalancing & Storage% of nameplate capacityAssumptions about the relationship between commercial and residential heatingd%GW/dTemperatureRatiod%Commercial/d%ResidentialThese are calculated by plotting 2000-2010 gas demand data for residential and commercial as a percentage of their annual averages against the National Grid composite weather variableHere we assume that the ratio of increase in commercial heating to residential heating is the same as in 2000-2010 dataAssumes that half of standby is CCGT with an efficiency of 50% and the other haff is OCGT with an efficiency of 30%This must match name used in emissions factor named range, e.g., EF.NaturalGas.CO2 = NaturalGas% of annual meandGW/dTemperaturedCommercial/dResidentialThese are calculated by plotting 2000-2010 gas demand data for residential and commercial against the National Grid composite weather variableHere we assume that the ratio of increase in commercial heating to residential heating is the same as in 2010Biomass to fuel conversionCommercial - Lighting, appliances & cookingCommercial heating and hot waterUsed in IndustryUsed in unabated power generationUsed in CCS power generationOversupply and Imports neededEdible biomassDry biomass and wasteWet biomass and wasteGas oversupply (imports)Biomass oversupply (imports)Electricity oversupply (imports)Petroleum products oversupplyCoal oversupply (imports)Oil and petroleum products oversupply (imports)4 (or D)~510 TWh/yr from 50-90 CCS power stations; build rate of gas plants in the 1990s~50 3GW power stations delivering ~1030 TWh/yr~900km of wave farms; 10,600 tidal stream turbines; 8 tidal range schemes9.5m2 of photovoltaic panels per person – all suitable roof and facade space used140 TWh/yr imported from UK 20% share of international desert solar project~20,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~130 TWh/yrSupply grows rapidly reaching 35 TWh/yr by 2030 and is sustainedSupply grows rapidly reaching 13 TWh/yr by 2035 and is sustainedInstalled in all suitable domestic and non-domestic sties; 8.9 TWh/year from 2020Biomass mainly converted to biogas fuelBiomass converted to a mixture of solid, liquid and gas biofuelsBiomass mainly converted to solid biofuelBiomass mainly converted to liquid biofuelLivestock numbers decrease by 10%Livestock numbers decrease by 20%Livestock numbers increase by 10%By 2050, all car & van travel is electrified; 20% use fuel-cell range extendersRoad modal share falls to half; greater hybridisation. Rail freight is all electric Moves in line with IMO global shipping forecast, emissions 4 times todays levelsAverage room temperature decreases to 16°C (a 1.5°C decrease on 2007)The proportion of domestic heat supplied using electricity is 80-100%A mixture of gas/biogas; coal/biomass; and heat from power stationsAll suitable buildings get ~60% of their hot water from solar thermalEnergy demand for domestic lights and appliances decreases by 60%CHOICETotal energy produced and requiredFOR INFORMATION: ENERGY DEMAND AND EMISSIONS FROM CHPEmissions from CHPFor information: outputs from CHP ONLYFor information: outputs excluding CHPFor information: Emissions excluding CHPFor information: Emissions from CHP ONLYTotal Emissions producedIX.a.CHPIX.a.NoCHPFOR INFORMATION: ENERGY AND EMISSIONS FROM CHPCHP related heating sourcesEnergy demand by physical vector for CHPA note on conversion losses:In general, conversion losses are reallocated to heating and cooling.The exception is CHP where they are kept separateThis is conceptually inconsistent, but looks right on the sankey diagramIX.c.NoCHPIX.c.CHPPeakCapacity/unit of areaEquivalent to a 2.5W/m2 actual energy output, and using a capacity factor of 30% to convert to peakApproximate land area coveredInstalled peak capacityImplicationsFor information:##/yrAssumed typical turbine sizeSize of Glendoe hydro projectSource: SEWTHA p 56PeakCapacity/unit of catchment areaPeakCapacity/unit of resevoir areaApproximate land area covered by resevoirExtraApproximate cachment area requiredSource: SEWTHA p 56, based on Loch Sloy, with the 36% load factor above used to convert from average to peak outputWave:Approximate length of wave frontWave: Extractable energyWave: Double the peak power of Pelamis P1 unitSource: Double this: http://www.pelamiswave.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/pelamisbrochure.pdfTidal Range: Peak power of La Rance stationSource: SEWTHA p 87Tidal Range: Enclosed sea area requiredEquivalent to 3.5W/m2 with a load factor of 25%Tidal range:Tidal stream:Tidal Stream: Area of 1 m/s tidal streamSource: http://www.seageneration.co.uk/Equivalent to 6W/m2 with a load factor of 40% (VERY SPECULATIVE)Information summary - waveInformation summary - tidal streamInformation summary - tidal rangeApproximate number of machines twice as powerful as Pelamis P1Approximate number of 1.2MW Seagen devicesApproximate number of 240 MW La Rance tidal range sitesApproximate area of >1m/s tidesAssumed fuel/unit areaArea coveredFor information, implied efficiency of algaeEnergy/unit of areaAssume 15W/m2 of electrical output in the desertApproximate area of desert to provide this powerCable average load / peak loadAssumes that all the day/night summer/winter energy storage is being done in the desertApproximate capacity of cable requiredProportion of energy lost on the waySource: SEWTHA p 179Approximate size of interconnectionNumber of CCS power stationsMainly coal or mainly gas CCSWave and tidalBiomass power stationsGeothermal electricityHydroelectriciyThe type of fuels from biomassQuantity of land dedicated to bioenergyNumber of livestock and their managementVolume of waste and recyclingQuantity of bioenergy importedDomestic transport behaviourDomestic transport electrificationAverage temperature of homesHome insulationHome heating electrificationHome heating that isn't electricSolar panels for hot waterSolar panels for electricityEnergy used for home lighting & appliancesElectrification of home cookingGrowth in heavy industryEnergy efficiency of heavy industryEnergy used for commercial lighting & appliancesCommercial demand for heating and coolingCommercial heating electrificationCommercial heating that isn't electricElectrification of commercial cookingStorage, demand shifting & interconnectionWebtool descriptionChoice typeData for web-based interface map viewTidal StreamTidal RangeAreaUK Land areaUK Sea areaB.05Land area overseasB.06LengthLength of wave frontIllustrative station sizehydroelectric resevoir assuming similar to Loch Sloysolar thermal panels if 50% efficientsolar PV if 20% efficienttidal stream devices if >1m/s tideswave energy convertors if 25% efficientbiocrops overseas if 0.6W/m2 productivityalgae if 0.9W/m2 efficientsolar devices overseas assuming 15W/m2 Illustrative pathways for FebruaryElectricity, format for web-based interfaceGreenhouse gas emissions from electricity generationCHP used for domestic space heating and hot waterCHP used for commercial heating and coolingTo fix:Allocation of some of CHP emissions to heatCoal importsOil importsNgasGas importsUK land based bioenergyBio-conversionAgricultural 'waste'Other wasteBiomass importsElectricity gridSolar ThermalThermal generationH2 conversionOver generation / exportsHeating and cooling - homesHeating and cooling - commercialLighting & appliances - homesLighting & appliances - commercialPumped heatBiofuel importsCHPThis is the data used for the sankey diagram in the web tool% reduction 1990-2050% importedTidal Stream: A bit larger than a Seagen deviceApproximate area of tidal impoundmenttidal impoundment if >Xm tidal rangeapproximate number if 2 MW devicesapproximate number if 240 MW, like La Rance 100% coal, 0% gas CCS after demonstration plants66% coal, 33% gas CCS after demonstration plants33% coal, 66% gas CCS after demonstration plants0% coal, 100% gas CCS after demonstration plants~1,400 turbines in 2025, reducing to zero as decommissioned sites are not replanted~40,000 turbines in 2050, delivering ~430 TWh/yrOnly plants built and under construction (0.6GW)8GW power stations by 2050 delivering 62TWh/yr12GW power stations by 2050 delivering 100TWh/yrOver 20GW installed capacity by 2050 delivering 180TWh/yr~4,400 turbines in 2025, reducing to zero as decommissioned sites are not replantedEnergy crops and food production similar to today5% of land used for energy crops10% of land used for energy crops20% of land used for energy cropsLivestock numbers same as todayQuantity of waste stable; 'zero' landfill, most waste recycledArea same as half of natural reserve used, delivering ~4 TWh/yrArea same as all of natural reserve used, delivering ~9 TWh/yrArea same as five times natural reserve used, delivering ~46 TWh/yrImported biofuel declines from ~ 4 TWh/yr currently to zero70 TWh/yr of imported bioenergy in 2050140 TWh/yr of imported bioenergy in 2050280 TWh/yr of imported bioenergy in 2050In 2050, individuals travel 9% further than today. No noticeable modal shift.Individuals travel XX% further than today, cars and vans are 80% of 2050 passenger mileageIndividuals travel XX% further than today; cars and vans 74% of 2050 passenger mileageIn 2050, individuals travel the same distance as today. Signficant shift to public transport.Annual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 0.8%. CCC “likely” scenarioAnnual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 1%. CCC “optimistic” scenarioAnnual improvement in plane fuel efficiency of 1.5%. CCC “speculative” scenarioFuel use is 105 TWh from 29 TWh in 2007Fuel use is 101 TWh from 29 TWh in 2008Fuel use is 91 TWh from 29 TWh in 2009Over 7m homes insulated, average thermal leakiness falls by 25%Over 8m homes insulated, average thermal leakiness falls by 33%Over 18m homes insulated, average thermal leakiness falls by 42%Over 24m homes insulated, average thermal leakiness decreases by 50% UK industry output more than doubles by 2050UK industry grows in line with current trendsUK industry output falls 30-40% by 2050No electrification of processes, little improvement in energy intensitySome processes electrified; moderate improvements in process emissions and energy demandHigh electrification; CCS captures 48% of emissions; process emissions reducedSource: SEWTHA p 73 gives 40 kW/m of wave power. Assume we can capture 25% of this 90% of the timeFromToBoxInOutDeltaProblem1 GW standby generatorsBiocrop informationArea of biocropsArea of forestForestry informationVI.a.ForestryVI.a.biocrop