time,actual,smoothed,a,b,c,d,upper,lower
39507,16378.7524,16378.7524,0,0,0,0,0,0
39508,59302.80493,3275.75048,1637.87524,163.787524,1474.087716,5602.705445,3275.75048,3275.75048
39509,29786.48846,14644.94889,7404.368209,724.0580685,6516.522616,6556.588857,28651.7125,638.1852819
39510,8219.494354,18397.31488,9642.580234,875.4734641,7879.261177,6918.712023,34788.78702,2005.842733
39511,38137.24785,17237.22424,9500.271646,773.6952589,6963.25733,8316.843182,34534.00429,-59.5558231
39512,35975.56127,22190.92422,12363.96927,982.6954951,8844.259456,8863.622569,42983.03217,1398.816261
39513,60403.89954,25930.54712,14725.12847,1120.541866,10084.87679,11424.59555,48089.60355,3771.490699
39514,14495.10358,33945.75947,19293.00557,1465.27539,13187.47851,12227.20159,62507.24836,5384.270586
39515,33778.81513,31520.90368,18813.21537,1270.768831,11436.91948,11230.27257,62088.90765,952.8997117
39516,41467.90768,33243.2548,20309.77535,1293.347945,11640.13151,10929.7106,61318.93624,5167.573367
39517,33412.98738,36181.53332,22425.58858,1375.594474,12380.35027,10113.59414,63505.80984,8857.256812
39518,45433.88563,37003.41861,23524.32846,1347.909015,12131.18113,9945.281426,62287.40396,11719.43326
39519,10370.75331,40037.42103,25715.28418,1432.213685,12889.92316,11917.42006,64900.62459,15174.21746
39520,6429.918228,35536.30117,24180.83109,1135.547008,10219.92307,13636.31634,65329.85131,5742.751029
39521,16430.86643,30850.57159,22405.73981,844.4831782,7600.348604,13714.65523,64941.36245,-3240.219273
39522,12461.38896,28811.11373,21808.25247,700.2861266,6302.57514,13978.16218,63097.7518,-5475.524331
39523,16443.26147,26241.45491,20873.56612,536.7888789,4831.09991,13560.16531,61186.86036,-8703.950546
39524,42565.38232,24818.6051,20430.53565,438.8069446,3949.262501,13978.8265,58719.01836,-9081.808166
39525,44926.70801,28806.76749,22644.02032,616.2747168,5546.472452,14192.9379,63753.83373,-6140.298756
39526,26323.97404,32647.03031,24872.28909,777.474122,6997.267098,13405.94974,68129.37506,-2835.314441
39527,14252.13965,32159.89318,25017.45758,714.2435593,6428.192034,13856.13012,65674.76752,-1354.981165
39528,105565.1001,29292.58603,23940.92579,535.166024,4816.494216,20097.76851,63932.91132,-5347.739259
39529,1443.90564,45082.25486,32103.34322,1297.891164,11681.02048,22451.82658,95326.67613,-5162.166408
39530,54702.30566,37652.47618,29037.39946,861.5076722,7753.569049,21911.62687,93782.04263,-18477.09027
39531,16381.97656,41923.94975,31603.89008,1032.005967,9288.053703,22274.6615,96703.01692,-12855.11742
39532,24127.57379,37847.56108,30081.69873,776.5862351,6989.276116,21419.19408,93534.21483,-17839.09267
39533,7395.563253,35880.14986,29486.28623,639.3863622,5754.47726,22125.73333,89428.13506,-17667.83534
39534,25937.52421,30822.6189,27277.21394,354.5404962,3190.864466,20401.66947,86136.95223,-24491.71443
39535,55918.67496,30200.14046,27143.24496,305.6895493,2751.205944,20933.35597,81204.31413,-20804.03321
39536,16808.07212,35649.53691,30020.78796,562.8748943,5065.874049,20724.16685,87982.92683,-16683.85302
39537,19270.19019,32444.11884,28699.51638,374.4602464,3370.142218,19969.14303,84254.53597,-19366.29829
39538,116687.8905,30183.79336,27756.58376,242.7209598,2184.488639,26622.63844,80106.65094,-19739.06423
39539,30423.44326,47727.33374,36649.71443,1107.761931,9969.857378,25690.76364,114283.9298,-18829.26236
39540,36513.4115,45374.31757,36027.08731,934.7230261,8412.507235,24007.77789,109601.2267,-18852.59154
39541,36626.26271,44536.85939,36075.71973,846.1139654,7615.025688,22398.05977,104556.3041,-15482.58533
39542,53286.80167,43800.85402,36130.77403,767.0079987,6903.071988,21106.84855,99796.00343,-12194.2954
39543,26793.474,46465.05155,37846.37679,861.8674752,7756.807277,20963.32145,99232.17293,-6302.069841
39544,31120.1192,43392.60351,36741.08651,665.1516998,5986.365298,20094.23774,95800.90715,-9015.700123
39545,42586.39165,41603.25835,36178.98978,542.4268566,4881.841709,18183.1273,91838.8527,-8632.336002
39546,191693.8747,42342.31187,36819.72997,552.2581896,4970.323706,31299.97085,87800.13011,-3115.506376
39547,29235.16858,72764.88262,52307.14444,2045.773818,18411.96436,32522.94517,151014.8097,-5485.044503
39548,85353.18654,66104.71363,49999.94685,1610.476677,14494.2901,31195.49794,147412.0765,-15202.64929
39549,165434.3529,71564.88489,53535.27082,1802.961407,16226.65266,37462.89495,149553.6297,-6423.859965
39550,43163.41525,92141.7399,64725.17903,2741.656087,24674.90478,38614.43792,185798.9773,-1515.497474
39551,24303.76183,85087.73105,62569.00265,2251.87284,20266.85556,40831.39105,181623.8258,-11448.36374
39552,27663.16908,75182.81005,58742.47857,1644.033148,14796.29833,41500.21604,177261.2877,-26895.66757
39553,77015.94392,67322.915,55634.54762,1168.836738,10519.53064,38319.49733,171073.4551,-36427.6251
39554,78420.97978,70430.35752,57772.68725,1265.767027,11391.90325,35286.60982,166229.1008,-25368.3858
39555,47501.43846,73294.249,59837.5165,1345.67325,12111.05925,34337.22989,161510.7736,-14922.27555
39556,35970.29131,69481.36014,58603.9087,1087.745144,9789.7063,34254.61379,155324.4349,-16361.71459
39557,33732.86028,63866.89152,56340.54696,752.6344562,6773.710105,33842.55553,149503.426,-21769.64295
39558,1574.705673,58592.71973,54079.77829,451.2941437,4061.647293,36160.10139,143199.1086,-26013.6691
39559,57608.82319,47640.41106,48829.27103,-118.8859968,-1069.973972,33540.93246,138040.6645,-42759.8424
39560,10088.23547,49515.20749,49707.22625,-19.20187559,-172.8168803,34129.53642,133367.5386,-34337.12366
39561,47914.92468,41610.61121,45745.32717,-413.4715958,-3721.244362,31347.01412,126934.4522,-43713.22983
39562,3988.72604,42458.00231,45962.28692,-350.4284611,-3153.85615,32059.24034,120825.5376,-35909.53299
39563,55799.76426,34413.71859,41764.93083,-735.1212238,-6616.091014,30991.92087,114561.8194,-45734.38224
39564,20444.05346,37955.8065,43168.41417,-521.2607671,-4691.346904,29643.90409,115435.6087,-39523.99567
39565,52540.01142,33932.19513,40895.9781,-696.3782975,-6267.404678,28540.29531,108041.9553,-40177.56509
39566,6249.661515,36957.38009,42060.38144,-510.3001346,-4592.701211,28757.03763,108308.1184,-34393.35818
39567,42032.84101,30305.53624,38479.30944,-817.3773203,-7356.395883,27054.06435,102198.1303,-41587.05784
39568,42537.65958,31833.61987,38834.6626,-700.1042727,-6300.938454,25419.06188,99468.78074,-35801.54099
39569,64966.97272,33274.32354,39204.9623,-593.0638756,-5337.57488,26046.42061,96821.97825,-30273.33116
39570,22953.14566,39019.7895,41781.16334,-276.1373838,-2485.236455,25048.44293,104135.841,-26096.26203
39571,58608.34065,35530.32335,39898.36157,-436.8038222,-3931.2344,24851.40037,98151.43069,-27090.78399
39572,13009.19189,39709.12299,41769.35948,-206.0236492,-1854.212843,25036.25344,101837.6239,-22419.37794
39573,20601.86596,34163.11312,38893.34272,-473.0229602,-4257.206641,23888.75281,96753.74673,-28427.52049
39574,43189.09059,30977.84073,37064.19505,-608.6354318,-5477.718886,22721.00252,90699.72276,-28744.04131
39575,36477.39214,32811.45527,37676.6846,-486.5229331,-4378.706398,20815.49595,89613.96157,-23991.05103
39576,44555.25315,33058.11971,37556.75535,-449.8635644,-4048.77208,19883.6597,85096.85959,-18980.62018
39577,36085.67447,34907.68283,38256.60513,-334.89223,-3014.03007,18013.0929,84616.83209,-14801.46642
39578,23316.31896,34808.38893,38039.51207,-323.1123136,-2908.010822,17360.9906,79841.12117,-10224.34331
39579,49186.15144,32186.86262,36567.19276,-438.0330133,-3942.29712,17324.82043,75589.33913,-11215.61389
39580,31557.85485,35148.68737,37829.08863,-268.0401251,-2412.361126,15951.42164,78460.73844,-8163.36369
39581,65510.2966,34162.48074,37201.96525,-303.9484503,-2735.536053,17491.06106,74041.03483,-5716.073343
39582,80525.79372,40128.09547,40032.79838,9.529708267,85.7673744,19781.72478,83855.74811,-3599.557178
39583,68365.96248,48217.16482,44082.09792,413.5066908,3721.560217,19818.43206,97671.47677,-1237.147118
39584,56253.36649,52660.43105,46510.48437,614.9946673,5534.952006,18195.8824,102206.5112,3114.350885
39585,83309.47475,53994.0128,47484.77258,650.9240217,5858.316196,19307.84036,99483.71881,8504.306796
39586,38579.61929,60508.02921,51067.2428,944.0786412,8496.707771,19569.89731,108777.6301,12238.42832
39587,29767.23803,57066.42587,49818.48045,724.7945419,6523.150877,20342.82637,105991.1692,8141.682584
39588,33254.65345,52331.38284,47813.35621,451.8026635,4066.223972,20216.21667,103188.4488,1474.316926
39589,15554.32368,48967.83963,46357.48593,261.0353696,2349.318326,21535.9466,99508.3813,-1572.702047
39590,37993.2485,42546.17181,43277.16971,-73.09978994,-657.8981095,19837.64427,96386.0383,-11293.69469
39591,39624.34677,41562.48735,42748.77758,-118.629023,-1067.661207,18047.6939,91156.59803,-8031.623318
39592,31145.61768,41056.23021,42436.3345,-138.0104289,-1242.09386,17233.98576,86175.46497,-4063.004536
39593,38384.76427,38936.09728,41307.26282,-237.1165542,-2134.048988,15565.72049,82021.06169,-4148.867131
39594,34303.07486,38588.71412,41015.01297,-242.6298844,-2183.668959,14437.71237,77503.01534,-325.5870998
39595,19024.69714,37488.95638,40343.81915,-285.486277,-2569.376493,14840.36705,73583.2373,1394.675469
39596,69006.2048,33510.61826,38211.90695,-470.1288694,-4231.159825,16905.889,70611.53589,-3590.299376
39597,32417.08188,40139.6067,41291.33674,-115.173004,-1036.557036,15987.55258,82404.32921,-2125.115809
39598,76430.03319,38479.92873,40403.91125,-192.3982522,-1731.58427,18183.80777,78448.81019,-1488.952731
39599,61975.26521,45877.55137,44006.52345,187.1027924,1683.925131,17975.19838,91337.0708,418.0319398
39600,22867.2208,49284.19693,45803.39762,348.0799308,3132.719377,18819.37615,94222.19288,4346.200983
39601,133257.8277,44348.88163,43509.77994,83.91016947,755.1915253,25828.33314,91397.32202,-2699.55875