# A collection of mutually exclusive odds for different outcomes. # Includes methods for sports betting arbitrage. Due to the discrete nature # of real-world monetary amounts, there may be small rounding errors. class MutuallyExclusiveCollection # create a new collection with the given odds # @param [Array] mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds the odds for all the mutually exclusive outcomes def initialize mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds = mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.sort end # the least likely of the odds to occur # @return [FixedOdds] the least likely odd def least_likely @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.first end # the most likely of the odds to occur # @return [FixedOdds] the most likely odd def most_likely @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.last end # the odds in ascending order of probability # @return [Array] odds in ascending probability def in_ascending_probability @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds end # the odds in descending order of probability # @return [Array] odds in descending probability def in_descending_probability @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.reverse end # tells if arbitrage is possible for a collection of odds # @return [Boolean] true if profit can be made regardless # of the outcome, false otherwise def arbitrageable? sum_inverse_outcome < 1 end # the bookmaker's return rate # @return [Number] the bookmaker's return rate as a percentage def bookmakers_return_rate fs = fractions 1 - fs.reduce(:*) / fs.reduce(:+) if fs.any? end # hash of the odds and what percentage of the total stake should go on each # @return [Hash] hash of odds to percentages def percentages @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.each_with_object({}) {|odds, hash| hash[odds] = 1 / odds.fractional_odds / sum_inverse_outcome } end # hash of the odds and what stakes to put on each given a total stake # @param [Money] total_stake the money to distribute on the outcomes # @return [Hash] hash of odds to stakes def stakes_for_total_stake total_stake @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.each_with_object({}) {|odds, hash| hash[odds] = total_stake / odds.fractional_odds / sum_inverse_outcome } end # hash of the odds and the stakes needed to make the specified profit # @param (see #stakes_for_total_stake) # @return (see #stakes_for_total_stake) def stakes_for_profit desired_profit stakes_for_total_stake stake_to_profit desired_profit end # the stake needed to win the desired profit # @param [Money] desired_profit the profit to gain from arbitrage # @return [Money] the stake necessary to realise the desired profit def stake_to_profit desired_profit desired_profit / profit_percentage end # the profit won given the total stake to distribute # @param (see #stakes_for_total_stake) # @return [Money] the profit that can be made from a total stake def profit_on_stake total_stake total_stake * profit_percentage end # profit percentage available on this arb # @return [Number] the percentage profit available on the arb def profit_percentage sum = sum_inverse_outcome (1 - sum) / sum end private def sum_inverse_outcome fractions.reduce(0) {|sum, n| sum + Rational(1, n) } end def fractions @mutually_exclusive_outcome_odds.collect &:fractional_odds end end