# frozen_string_literal: true require 'rubystats' module Split class Experiment attr_accessor :name attr_accessor :goals attr_accessor :alternative_probabilities attr_accessor :metadata attr_reader :alternatives attr_reader :resettable DEFAULT_OPTIONS = { :resettable => true } def self.find(name) Split.cache(:experiments, name) do return unless Split.redis.exists?(name) Experiment.new(name).tap { |exp| exp.load_from_redis } end end def initialize(name, options = {}) options = DEFAULT_OPTIONS.merge(options) @name = name.to_s extract_alternatives_from_options(options) end def self.finished_key(key) "#{key}:finished" end def set_alternatives_and_options(options) options_with_defaults = DEFAULT_OPTIONS.merge( options.reject { |k, v| v.nil? } ) self.alternatives = options_with_defaults[:alternatives] self.goals = options_with_defaults[:goals] self.resettable = options_with_defaults[:resettable] self.algorithm = options_with_defaults[:algorithm] self.metadata = options_with_defaults[:metadata] end def extract_alternatives_from_options(options) alts = options[:alternatives] || [] if alts.length == 1 if alts[0].is_a? Hash alts = alts[0].map{|k, v| {k => v} } end end if alts.empty? exp_config = Split.configuration.experiment_for(name) if exp_config alts = load_alternatives_from_configuration options[:goals] = Split::GoalsCollection.new(@name).load_from_configuration options[:metadata] = load_metadata_from_configuration options[:resettable] = exp_config[:resettable] options[:algorithm] = exp_config[:algorithm] end end options[:alternatives] = alts set_alternatives_and_options(options) # calculate probability that each alternative is the winner @alternative_probabilities = {} alts end def save validate! if new_record? start unless Split.configuration.start_manually persist_experiment_configuration elsif experiment_configuration_has_changed? reset unless Split.configuration.reset_manually persist_experiment_configuration end redis.hset(experiment_config_key, :resettable, resettable, :algorithm, algorithm.to_s) self end def validate! if @alternatives.empty? && Split.configuration.experiment_for(@name).nil? raise ExperimentNotFound.new("Experiment #{@name} not found") end @alternatives.each {|a| a.validate! } goals_collection.validate! end def new_record? ExperimentCatalog.find(name).nil? end def ==(obj) self.name == obj.name end def [](name) alternatives.find{|a| a.name == name} end def algorithm @algorithm ||= Split.configuration.algorithm end def algorithm=(algorithm) @algorithm = algorithm.is_a?(String) ? algorithm.constantize : algorithm end def resettable=(resettable) @resettable = resettable.is_a?(String) ? resettable == 'true' : resettable end def alternatives=(alts) @alternatives = alts.map do |alternative| if alternative.kind_of?(Split::Alternative) alternative else Split::Alternative.new(alternative, @name) end end end def winner Split.cache(:experiment_winner, name) do experiment_winner = redis.hget(:experiment_winner, name) if experiment_winner Split::Alternative.new(experiment_winner, name) else nil end end end def has_winner? return @has_winner if defined? @has_winner @has_winner = !winner.nil? end def winner=(winner_name) redis.hset(:experiment_winner, name, winner_name.to_s) @has_winner = true Split.configuration.on_experiment_winner_choose.call(self) end def participant_count alternatives.inject(0){|sum, a| sum + a.participant_count} end def control alternatives.first end def reset_winner redis.hdel(:experiment_winner, name) @has_winner = false Split::Cache.clear_key(@name) end def start redis.hset(:experiment_start_times, @name, Time.now.to_i) end def start_time Split.cache(:experiment_start_times, @name) do t = redis.hget(:experiment_start_times, @name) if t # Check if stored time is an integer if t =~ /^[-+]?[0-9]+$/ Time.at(t.to_i) else Time.parse(t) end end end end def next_alternative winner || random_alternative end def random_alternative if alternatives.length > 1 algorithm.choose_alternative(self) else alternatives.first end end def version @version ||= (redis.get("#{name}:version").to_i || 0) end def increment_version @version = redis.incr("#{name}:version") end def key if version.to_i > 0 "#{name}:#{version}" else name end end def goals_key "#{name}:goals" end def finished_key self.class.finished_key(key) end def metadata_key "#{name}:metadata" end def resettable? resettable end def reset Split.configuration.on_before_experiment_reset.call(self) Split::Cache.clear_key(@name) alternatives.each(&:reset) reset_winner Split.configuration.on_experiment_reset.call(self) increment_version end def delete Split.configuration.on_before_experiment_delete.call(self) if Split.configuration.start_manually redis.hdel(:experiment_start_times, @name) end reset_winner redis.srem(:experiments, name) remove_experiment_cohorting remove_experiment_configuration Split.configuration.on_experiment_delete.call(self) increment_version end def delete_metadata redis.del(metadata_key) end def load_from_redis exp_config = redis.hgetall(experiment_config_key) options = { resettable: exp_config['resettable'], algorithm: exp_config['algorithm'], alternatives: load_alternatives_from_redis, goals: Split::GoalsCollection.new(@name).load_from_redis, metadata: load_metadata_from_redis } set_alternatives_and_options(options) end def calc_winning_alternatives # Cache the winning alternatives so we recalculate them once per the specified interval. intervals_since_epoch = Time.now.utc.to_i / Split.configuration.winning_alternative_recalculation_interval if self.calc_time != intervals_since_epoch if goals.empty? self.estimate_winning_alternative else goals.each do |goal| self.estimate_winning_alternative(goal) end end self.calc_time = intervals_since_epoch self.save end end def estimate_winning_alternative(goal = nil) # initialize a hash of beta distributions based on the alternatives' conversion rates beta_params = calc_beta_params(goal) winning_alternatives = [] Split.configuration.beta_probability_simulations.times do # calculate simulated conversion rates from the beta distributions simulated_cr_hash = calc_simulated_conversion_rates(beta_params) winning_alternative = find_simulated_winner(simulated_cr_hash) # push the winning pair to the winning_alternatives array winning_alternatives.push(winning_alternative) end winning_counts = count_simulated_wins(winning_alternatives) @alternative_probabilities = calc_alternative_probabilities(winning_counts, Split.configuration.beta_probability_simulations) write_to_alternatives(goal) self.save end def write_to_alternatives(goal = nil) alternatives.each do |alternative| alternative.set_p_winner(@alternative_probabilities[alternative], goal) end end def calc_alternative_probabilities(winning_counts, number_of_simulations) alternative_probabilities = {} winning_counts.each do |alternative, wins| alternative_probabilities[alternative] = wins / number_of_simulations.to_f end return alternative_probabilities end def count_simulated_wins(winning_alternatives) # initialize a hash to keep track of winning alternative in simulations winning_counts = {} alternatives.each do |alternative| winning_counts[alternative] = 0 end # count number of times each alternative won, calculate probabilities, place in hash winning_alternatives.each do |alternative| winning_counts[alternative] += 1 end return winning_counts end def find_simulated_winner(simulated_cr_hash) # figure out which alternative had the highest simulated conversion rate winning_pair = ["", 0.0] simulated_cr_hash.each do |alternative, rate| if rate > winning_pair[1] winning_pair = [alternative, rate] end end winner = winning_pair[0] return winner end def calc_simulated_conversion_rates(beta_params) simulated_cr_hash = {} # create a hash which has the conversion rate pulled from each alternative's beta distribution beta_params.each do |alternative, params| alpha = params[0] beta = params[1] simulated_conversion_rate = Rubystats::BetaDistribution.new(alpha, beta).rng simulated_cr_hash[alternative] = simulated_conversion_rate end return simulated_cr_hash end def calc_beta_params(goal = nil) beta_params = {} alternatives.each do |alternative| conversions = goal.nil? ? alternative.completed_count : alternative.completed_count(goal) alpha = 1 + conversions beta = 1 + alternative.participant_count - conversions params = [alpha, beta] beta_params[alternative] = params end return beta_params end def calc_time=(time) redis.hset(experiment_config_key, :calc_time, time) end def calc_time redis.hget(experiment_config_key, :calc_time).to_i end def jstring(goal = nil) js_id = if goal.nil? name else name + "-" + goal end js_id.gsub('/', '--') end def cohorting_disabled? @cohorting_disabled ||= begin value = redis.hget(experiment_config_key, :cohorting) value.nil? ? false : value.downcase == "true" end end def disable_cohorting @cohorting_disabled = true redis.hset(experiment_config_key, :cohorting, true) end def enable_cohorting @cohorting_disabled = false redis.hset(experiment_config_key, :cohorting, false) end protected def experiment_config_key "experiment_configurations/#{@name}" end def load_metadata_from_configuration Split.configuration.experiment_for(@name)[:metadata] end def load_metadata_from_redis meta = redis.get(metadata_key) JSON.parse(meta) unless meta.nil? end def load_alternatives_from_configuration alts = Split.configuration.experiment_for(@name)[:alternatives] raise ArgumentError, "Experiment configuration is missing :alternatives array" unless alts if alts.is_a?(Hash) alts.keys else alts.flatten end end def load_alternatives_from_redis alternatives = redis.lrange(@name, 0, -1) alternatives.map do |alt| alt = begin JSON.parse(alt) rescue alt end Split::Alternative.new(alt, @name) end end private def redis Split.redis end def redis_interface RedisInterface.new end def persist_experiment_configuration redis_interface.add_to_set(:experiments, name) redis_interface.persist_list(name, @alternatives.map{|alt| {alt.name => alt.weight}.to_json}) goals_collection.save if @metadata redis.set(metadata_key, @metadata.to_json) else delete_metadata end end def remove_experiment_configuration @alternatives.each(&:delete) goals_collection.delete delete_metadata redis.del(@name) end def experiment_configuration_has_changed? existing_experiment = Experiment.find(@name) existing_experiment.alternatives.map(&:to_s) != @alternatives.map(&:to_s) || existing_experiment.goals != @goals || existing_experiment.metadata != @metadata end def goals_collection Split::GoalsCollection.new(@name, @goals) end def remove_experiment_cohorting @cohorting_disabled = false redis.hdel(experiment_config_key, :cohorting) end end end